Dear Editor,
I am responding to Dr Joey Jagan’s passing comments that “Bisram got it all wrong in the T&T election” and that “no one takes him seriously any more” in a letter titled ‘T&T Showed us what an election is all about’ (SN, June 2). Dr Jagan did not say what exactly Bisram got wrong in Trinidad and how he knows that no one takes Bisram seriously any more.
On close examination of Bisram’s poll findings, Dr Jagan himself would see how wrong he is. There were several aspects of the NACTA poll that were spot on.
Dr Jagan has been advocating big tent politics in Guyana in which all the opposition forces would come together, similar to T&T. I recall about five years ago there was a move towards big tent opposition politics in which his name came up as a prospective leader in a NACTA poll.
Instead of selling such a concept to Guyanese, saying how it could work and who would lead it, he chose to unjustifiably attack me. I am neither for nor against big tent politics. I am an independent pollster interested in surveying peoples’ views in political and social issues and releasing the findings for public consumption. I plan on querying people’s views about opposition big tent politics when next I poll in Guyana.
With regard to the NACTA poll in T&T, the findings are off in terms of the number of seats won, and no poll had it right. But the NACTA poll did say the opposition would win and it has (release of May 23).
There were at least seven known pollsters conducting polls on the election. All the polls said the outcome would be close and none foresaw 29-12. The MORI (England) and Johnson (American/ Jamaican) polls said the PNM would win. The Ghany (UWI) poll initially said the PNM would win and later I was told it stated the People’s Partnership (PP) would win by a squeaker. The Ansa Mcal poll did not give a commitment to which party would win but initially had the PP ahead by 40% in popular votes and later by 22% with 26% undecided voters. Prof Selyn Ryan (SARA, UWI) did not release the findings of his poll but did say the opposition would win and the outcome would be close. Another Trini pollster (DR) said it was too close to call. Prof Bishnu from UWI said his analysis showed the outcome would be close and could swing either way. NACTA, in a release on the evening of May 21, said it was the most difficult election to predict because of the battle in the marginals but gave the edge to PP. During a live TV interview on (TV 6 with host Andy Johnson) on May 22, I stated that the momentum was on the side of the PP beginning on Thursday May 20 and that the PNM was on the defensive. When asked what it would take for there to be a landslide PP victory similar to what took place in December 1986, I responded “a political tsunami.”
When asked if a political tsunami was in the making, I said the evidence was not available at the time but there was a huge swing towards the PP from May 21 and a tsunami sweeping the PNM away was possible (the TV 6 video tape can be verified). In updated NACTA polling done on May 22, the findings showed the PNM had lost an additional 18% support in its constituency of Tunapuna and 12% in St Joseph. This suggested trouble for the PNM. I stated on TV 6, with the credible Andy Johnson as a witness, that if the PP won one safe PNM seat in the corridor, then it would take all, save Maloney which is a hard-core PNM seat. The PNM did lose the key seat of Tunapuna and with it five safe contiguous seats in addition to St Joseph and San Juan/Barataria.
On the morning of May 22, NACTA released its latest findings showing the PP winning and it was carried on all the news programmes on TV and radio on May 23. So, while the poll did not say up front the PP would win 29 seats, it did not rule out such an eventuality. Other pollsters totally ruled out a landslide PP victory. It should also be noted that the poll’s findings on popular support was within the margin of error. The poll also was correct on which of the candidates would get the most votes and the least amount of votes. The poll said the PNM would lose one deposit and the PP would not lose any and that was the outcome. On CNC 3 TV right after the polls closed and before votes were counted on the evening of May 24, I said the opposition was winning key seats and I knew the winner early but did not want to preempt the victor from announcing its victory. That can also be verified from TV.
Yours faithfully,
Vishnu Bisram
