Dear Editor,
The recent comments attributed to the PPP/Civic government in its political manifestation which have labelled the March 2010 CADRES Guyana Poll as “bogus” are not entirely surprising. CADRES has been in the business of political opinion polling since 1990 and during this time has observed that political parties which do not perform favourably in our polls tend to pour scorn on CADRES at the level of the organisation, or on the individual who leads it in an attempt to distract the public from the message contained in the poll which is invariably a frank assessment of the political ‘state of play.’
Political parties across the region have adopted various labels and on this occasion the PPP/Civic has suggested that the poll is “bogus.” It is noteworthy that similar comments have been attributed to both governments and oppositions which subsequently lost elections, and for the purposes of illustration, CADRES would draw attention to a few of the more recent cases in point. In 2009 the leader of the Dominica Freedom Party, Judith Pestina, stated that a CADRES poll which stated that the Skerrit administration would be returned with an enhanced number of seats was “not scientific and [was] an outrageous attempt to influence the thinking and choice of Dominica voters and should be rejected out of hand.” Similarly, in 2008 the former Barbados Prime Minister Owen Arthur ridiculed the director of CADRES, Peter Wickham, in a popular YouTube video that suggested that he was an “agent” of the Democratic Labour Party because he suggested that he (Arthur) would lose the 2008 election and be relegated to the opposition with 10 seats (This happened on January 14, 2008).
Those among us who follow Carib-bean politics would also recall the recent Antigua election where Opposition Leader Lester Bird suggested that the track record of CADRES left much to be desired and suggested that his information “from the ground” indicated that the UPP would be removed. Needless to say the UPP continues to govern Antigua and there appears to be a curious relationship between the Lester Bird’s statements and the PPP/Civic’s statements that their interactions with Guyanese “on the ground” suggest that they are now more popular than before.
In January of this year, St Kitts and Nevis went to the polls and again CADRES was on the receiving end of castigation by a political party and on this occasion it was the People’s Action Movement (PAM) which argued that the CADRES polls were “bogus” and suggested that Peter Wickham was a “spin doctor” and not a scientist; however history would confirm that CADRES correctly predicted that the Douglas administration would retain power.
CADRES therefore anticipates this type of negative response and is anxious to defend its reputation as the region’s most reliable polling organisation. CADRES adheres to the strictest methodology which is available in detail to those who might be interested and this method has been vindicated repeatedly over the 20 years that we have been in existence. The organisation continues to be led by an individual who lives in and is intimately familiar with the Caribbean’s political complexity and it is for this reason that the PPP/Civic’s comparison of the CADRES poll to the 2006 Dick Morris poll was most unfortunate. The latter individual is an American who was associated with the AFC in 2006, however one struggles to find a record of his involvement in any Caribbean election before or since. In contradistinction, CADRES has recorded its opinion on the likely outcome of elections across the Caribbean with unparalleled accuracy since 1990 and our opinions are continually sought by those who are interested in a sober assessment of political opinion in any Caribbean country.
CADRES is satisfied that the recent Guyana poll is a fair and accurate assessment of the fortunes of the various political parties there and is prepared to stand by its statement that the PPP/Civic’s support has fallen considerably since the last general election and not grown as the PPP/Civic is suggesting.
Yours faithfully,
Peter Wickham
