-CADRES poll
The governing party’s ability to enhance the country’s infrastructure is seen as its major strength, while the inability to tackle corruption, fight crime and create employment are seen as some of its major weaknesses, according to a recent Caribbean Development Research Services Inc (CADRES) survey.
CADRES yesterday released a summary of its findings on the PPP/Civic’s major strengths and weaknesses as well as the major issues of concern to Guyanese, including whether they believed civil society should have more say in day to day decision making in the country. The group said over 1,000 people surveyed in March believed that the government’s major strength is its ability to enhance the infrastructure of Guyana, and this was a view shared by persons who support all political parties. CADRES also noted that it was interesting that a disproportionate number of PPP/Civic supporters believed that their party also has a superior ability to grow the economy and that the supporters of other small parties believe that the PPP/Civic also has some capacity to fight crime. Touching on weaknesses, it said the PPP/Civics’ major weakness was less obvious, since respondents were split between its inability to tackle corruption, fight crime and create employment. “The proximity of the crime and corruption issues would imply that this is the Achilles’ heel of the PPP/Civic government,” it noted.
Meanwhile, 43% of respondents reported that they were most concerned about the cost of living when asked to identify the national issue of greatest concern to them. Additionally, 13% were concerned about the related issue of employment. CADRES said the data bears similarity to the findings of surveys it has conducted across the Caribbean that point to a preoccupation with issues of an economic nature, primarily. It added that the single largest group of respondents (10%) that identified a non-economic issue were concerned about crime. However, there was no comparable data available to allow CADRES to determine if any individual issue is of greater concern now than a year or two ago.
When asked about the extent to which they believed that civil society and Guyanese in general should have more of a say in the day to day decision making of the country, the survey found that 83% of respondents generally agreed that people should have more of a say. However, it noted that there is less cohesion regarding which party was more likely to give people more of a say in decision-making. The majority, 25% of respondents, were of the opinion that the AFC would be most likely to provide the space for participation of civil society and Guyanese in general, while 17% and 18% of respondents, felt that the PPP/Civic and PNCR, respectively, would be more inclined to empower people in this way.
The PPP/Civic has strongly criticised the survey, calling it misleading, after CADRES reported that the party’s support has fallen considerably since the last general election. However, CADRES has stood by its results, saying it is satisfied that it is “a fair and accurate assessment” of the fortunes of the various political parties.
The survey has found that the governing PPP/Civic continues to command the single largest bloc of voters but has lost major support since the last general election. It measured the PPP/Civic’s overall support at 38%, the PNCR at 31% and the AFC at 26%, representing a drop of 16%, 3% and a gain of 18%, respectively.
In wake of the release of the initial findings, the PPP/Civic dubbed the poll “bogus,” saying that its publication is a move to “confuse and mislead” the people of the country. It compared the poll to what it called the “fraudulent” one made public by the AFC in 2006, which gave the PPP/C 36% of the vote. The 2006 poll was conducted by political consultant Dick Morris, and the PPP noted that he had claimed that the AFC had overtaken the PNCR-1G in terms of voter support. The PPP subsequently won 54.5% of the votes cast at the elections. “This type of bogus poll,” it said, “reflects the desperation of some sections of the opposition as it notes the big and enthusiastic reception that the PPP/C is getting wherever it goes.” It asserted that the popularity of the PPP and the PPP/C government has “never been so high.”
In a statement on Tuesday, CADRES said it anticipates such “negative response” and is anxious to defend its reputation as the region’s “most reliable” polling organisation. It emphasised that it adheres to the strictest methodology, which is available in detail to those who might be interested. “…This method has been vindicated repeatedly over the 20 years that we have been in existence,” it said, adding that the organisation continues to be led by an individual who lives in the Caribbean and is intimately familiar with its political complexity.
As a result, it said comparison to the 2006 Dick Morris polls was “most unfortunate.” Morris has no record of involvement in any Caribbean election before or since, it added, while CADRES “has recorded its opinion on the likely outcome of elections across the Caribbean with unparalleled accuracy since 1990 and our opinions are continually sought by those who are interested in a sober assessment of political opinion in any Caribbean country.”
CADRES noted that it has been in the business of political opinion polling since 1990 and it has found that political parties that do not perform favourably in its polls tend to pour scorn on the organisation or on its Director Research Peter Wickham, in an attempt to distract the public from what is invariably a frank assessment of the political “state of play.” It added that such responses have come from both governments and oppositions which subsequently lost elections.
It pointed to a recent case in 2009, when the leader of the Dominica Freedom Party Judith Pestina stated that a CADRES poll which stated that the Skerrit Administration would be returned with an enhanced number of seats was “not scientific and [was] an outrageous attempt to influence the thinking and choice of Dominica voters and should be rejected out of hand.” Similarly, in 2008 the former Barbados Prime Minister Owen Arthur suggested that Wickham was an “agent” of the Democratic Labour Party because he suggested that Arthur would lose the 2008 election and be relegated to the opposition with 10 seats-which subsequently occurred in January, 2008.
CADRES also noted that before the recent Antigua election Opposition Leader Lester Bird suggested that that the organisation’s track record left much to be desired and suggested that his information “from the ground” indicated that the UPP would be removed. “Needless to say the UPP continues to govern Antigua and there appears to be a curious relationship between the Lester Bird statements and the PPP/Civic statements that their interactions with Guyanese “on the ground” suggest that they are now more popular than before,” CADRES said. It added that in January the People Action Movement also denounced a CADRES poll as “bogus” before St Kitts and Nevis went to elections but its prediction that the Douglas administration would retain power proved to be correct.
