The inevitable has happened: the fourth round of sanctions to be imposed on Iran has been agreed by the Security Council. The decision was not unanimous; Lebanon abstained because the Iranian-backed Hizbollah is in the Cabinet, which split evenly on whether to support the draft resolution or not, while not surprisingly Brazil and Turkey voted against it. The two nations had been involved in earlier negotiations with Iran and had achieved a measure of concession on the matter of nuclear fuel which they said could provide the foundation for a more comprehensive accord, but the US dismissed it, and sanctions were still discussed at the UN. All five permanent members of the council (along with Germany) voted in favour, despite the fact that two of those members – Russia and China – are numbered among Iran’s friends.
The possibility of new sanctions has been in the air for a considerable time, but that possibility apparently did not give President Jagdeo any pause for thought when he jetted off on one of his supplicatory jaunts to the Middle East earlier this year. Among the places he visited was Tehran, never mind its unsavoury democratic record and its friction with the UN over its apparent nuclear weapons’ ambitions. Georgetown, it seems, is such a force in the world that it can afford to ignore the international climate and the United Nations, not to mention such inconsequential states as the United States, Russia and China.
On this occasion the President returned to State House bearing the glad tidings that various initiatives were being pursued in health and agriculture, in addition to one for Iran to map the mineral potential of Guyana. To this end, the media were told, a team would be sent to work with the Guyana Geology and Mines Commission, and the impression was conveyed that this project in particular was in fast-forward mode. There is little nowadays to titillate the senses of the political classes, but this did raise a little buzz. Why would Tehran be so anxious to assist in mapping our minerals unless the government there was seeking new sources of uranium for its nuclear programme? Neither the head of state, the Minister of Foreign Affairs, nor the Prime Minister saw fit to enlighten local citizens about the discussions with President Ahmadinejad, so they were left to speculate as they saw fit.
And the outside world was left to speculate as it saw fit too. Exactly what construction the government thought the international community would put on it – other than the obvious one, that is – is a mystery. Either way it is clear they didn’t care. It may be, of course, that President Jagdeo’s famously ad hoc foreign policy just turned even more random than usual, but if a more rational account is to be given of his actions, then perhaps he believed he was moving Guyana out of the Western arc and into the ambit of countries on this continent which have close relations with Iran, namely, Venezuela, Cuba and their allies. Perhaps too he felt more confident given that our southern neighbour, Brazil, has pursued friendship with Iran, although at that stage President Lula had not involved himself in negotiations over the nuclear issue. However, Mr Ahmadinejad was made welcome in Brasilia on his tour of Latin America, and the Brazilian head of state subsequently visited Tehran.
Caracas and its allies also have close relations with two of the permanent members of the Security Council which last week voted in favour of sanctions, namely, Russia and China, while this country has been assiduously pursuing Beijing at least. The mercurial President Chávez will no doubt juggle his various allies without difficulty, at the same time as he denounces the sanctions, but what if Georgetown finds itself in the unusual position of coming under pressure from both East and West on the same issue?
PPP thinking on this subject at least was revealed in an article in this weekend’s Mirror, which was bylined to “Mirror’s International Correspondent,” although s/he was not named. “It is clear that the U.S. has applied a lot of pressure on other countries to comply,” the correspondent wrote, although exactly how it succeeded in forcing China and Russia of all countries, to cave in was not elucidated. It was also not explained why middle-ranking Brazil and Turkey, described as “the only states that felt strong enough to resist the might of the U.S.,” were able to do so when the first named nations – which hardly could be said to have a history of bowing to American pressure and are strong enough not to have to do so – could not. The report went on to comment that it was “very obvious” that the “great powers” were “taking a terribly biased position against Iran,” and then reiterated the ruling party’s traditional position on what it called the “terrorist state of Israel.”
While Israel’s unacceptable policies and the failure of successive US administrations to rein in their Middle Eastern ally – for reasons which are very well known – are not in dispute, it is a rather simplistic view which leaps from that to supporting what in effect is Iran’s refusal to subject itself to the inspection regime of the International Atomic Energy Authority to ensure that it is producing nuclear fuel for purely peaceful purposes. If the US disarmed Israel of nuclear weapons, wrote the correspondent, then it would have the moral authority to call for sanctions against Iran.
Despite the disclaimer in the first paragraph, by the end of the Mirror article one was forced to the conclusion that the ruling party by implication supports Iran’s nuclear weapons’ ambitions, with all that that implies for Middle East politics. Marry that unsophisticated old-left view to the feeling mentioned above, namely, that Guyana is secure nestling among left-oriented friends such as Cuba, Venezuela and their Alba allies, then it is a small step to move in synchronicity with their perceptions, and invite the Iranians here.
Leaving aside the matter of whether or not this country could be subject to diplomatic pressure despite the fact it feels insulated by its ‘friends,’ there is now the matter of the latest UN sanctions on Iran. As we reported in our Friday edition, when this newspaper asked Prime Minister Hinds about the sanctions, all he would say was that these had been noted by the government. He did tell us, however, that the mapping plans were ongoing, and that the most recent development was the signing of a Memorandum of Understanding by the officials of both nations.
Whether this country potentially could fall foul of any of the decisions listed in the UN resolution, is something one expects the administration would take legal advice on. Those decisions include (among others) item 7 which states that “Iran shall not acquire an interest in any commercial activity in another State involving uranium mining…” and item 22 which says that “all States shall require their nationals… to exercise vigilance when doing business with entities incorporated in Iran… if they have information that provides reasonable grounds to believe that such business could contribute to Iran’s proliferation [of] sensitive nuclear activities…”
It may be that technically mapping mineral resources would not cause this country to fall foul of the UN sanctions, but if there were any undeclared understanding with Tehran about subsequent possible mining contracts, then that would clearly be a problem. In any event, perception is everything in these situations, and given the public position of the ruling party and President Jagdeo’s seeming insouciance about pursuing close relations with Iran, Guyana will certainly come under scrutiny if it engages in projects with that country, more particularly the mineral mapping one.
Since no one is too sure these days what the government’s foreign policy is, there would be no accusations of inconsistency if the administration now stepped back and reviewed its relations with Tehran.