In the Gulf of Mexico, oil continues to haemorrhage from a deep sea well nearly a mile beneath the ocean and about forty miles off the US coast. Although estimates vary, the growing consensus among scientists is that even with the cap that has now been placed over the leak, some 35,000 to 60,000 barrels per day of crude oil are continuing to flow into the waters of the Gulf. Latest estimates suggest that some 3m barrels of oil have already entered the seas since the Deepwater Horizon rig sunk on April 20.
So far it has been the US that has suffered, but as the hurricane season gets underway, and ocean currents undergo seasonal changes there is a slight, but hard to predict possibility that if the flow is not stopped in August, when relief wells being drilled by BP are expected to be complete, some parts of the Western Caribbean could also be at risk.
Forecasting hurricane frequency, intensity and tracking is a far from exact science, but the suggestion this year is that higher than average sea temperatures in the Caribbean Sea may result in greater activity and intensity and for hurricanes to form off the southeast coast of the US in the Gulf of Mexico, or in the northeastern Caribbean.
Concern about the spill was raised when Cariforum foreign ministers met the US Secretary of State Hillary Clinton in Barbados on June 18. There, in what was described as a sobering analysis, Bahamian Foreign Minister Brent Symonette, spoke about the consequences of the oil reaching Caribbean shores.
Most experts believe this possibility to be slight. This is because the ocean currents in and around the Caribbean move in north-westerly direction from the Eastern Caribbean to the Gulf of Mexico. They then join the Yucatan Current and the Florida Current, looping southwards around the west coast of Florida before proceeding on and up the eastern coast of the US.
A report from the Mona Institute of Applied Sciences (MIAS) at the University the West Indies suggests that as the oil disperses from the spill site it will in time likely travel south, join the loop current and eventually follow it around Florida and along the US Atlantic coast and away from most of the Caribbean.
Confirming this, in the short term, charts and diagrams produced by the US National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) NOAA suggest any oil-bearing currents will follow an offshore course past Havana to the north of the Cuban coast, before turning and passing to the west of the Bahamas. However elements of unpredictability exist should any hurricane develop in the Gulf of Mexico causing sea surges and changes in the movement of the undersea currents.
MIAS’s conclusion is that although any imminent threat to Caribbean beaches and wildlife seems unlikely, the Caribbean needs to formulate a response plan to protect the beaches that sustain its economy and wildlife.
Such considerations apart, the spill is having a number of immediate side effects. Although it has only marginally affected the timing of cruise ship sailings to the Caribbean, major lines like Carnival will not sail at night near the areas where the oil spill is. Cruise lines are also having to inspect ships for contaminated hulls. More positively the price for Surinamese and Guyanese shrimp has surged as US Gulf Coast suppliers have had to turn to imports and cease domestic operations.
More significantly, what has happened is leading globally to questions being asked about the risks associated with the recovery of oil at greater or lesser depths in environmentally sensitive waters in regions such as the Caribbean. This together with the continuing uncertainties surrounding oil prices and high levels of regional indebtedness suggests that the Caribbean as a whole ought to be giving greater thought to the promotion of investment in sources of sustainable energy and how this might be linked to investment, development assistance and to carbon credits.
Some nations have already understood this. Last week a delegation from the Cuban energy sector has been in the UK and Italy meeting with industry specialists and potential investors and their advisers to discuss opportunities relating to using biomass, hydropower and other forms of sustainable energy including wind, solar and tidal action. During their visit what became clear was that Cuba was paying great attention to alternative approaches to power generation, in areas where other large Caribbean nations have equal or better opportunities to encourage investment and external support.
This is interesting, not least because Cuba has taken a conscious decision – despite its preferential arrangements with Venezuela, under the PetroCaribe accord – that it will develop a fully sustainable approach, initially focusing on using sugar cane as the feedstock for the generation of energy.
President Obama too, irrespective of the powerful US oil lobby, wants to begin to end his nation’s addiction to fossil fuels. He is trying to build on the oil disaster in the Gulf of Mexico to encourage a national sense of urgency.
Speaking from the White House he suggested that there was a need to embark on a mission to develop clean energy technologies. The consequences of our inaction, he said, were in plain sight. “Countries like China are investing in clean energy jobs and industries… Each day, we send nearly US$1 billion of our wealth to foreign countries for their oil. And today, as we look to the Gulf, we see an entire way of life being threatened by a menacing cloud of black crude.”
In the Cariforum meeting with Hillary Clinton it was also recognised that energy security and mitigating the impact of climate change were linked and fundamental to the future development, growth and stability.
President Obama’s message resulting from the Deepwater Horizon disaster is as much one for the Caribbean as for the people of the US. A heavily indebted region cannot expect to receive for ever oil at subsidized prices from Venezuela, a nation that has economic problems of its own. If Cuba can start down a road to developing new sources of energy with external participation, so too should the rest of the region.
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