By Harry Hergash, a graduate of the University of Guyana, taught at the Annandale Government Secondary from 1964 to 1969. He immigrated to Canada in 1974.

National elections in Guyana are due in just over a year. By that time the ruling party would have been in government for four consecutive terms totalling nineteen years. While it may be a bit early to make predictions, this article – in two parts – looks at the state of readiness of the major parties and their prospects of gaining power.

The governing PPP will be going to the polls with three potential vulnerabilities. First and foremost is the fact that, for the first time in its history, this party will not be the beneficiary of the wisdom and visibility of either of its two most powerful founders, Dr. Cheddi Jagan or his wife Mrs. Janet Jagan. This physical absence means there will be a tremendous void in its armoury even though the names of the Jagans will be invoked on all occasions to give legitimacy for a fifth term in government.

Secondly, since the constitution does not allow a third term for President Jagdeo, barring a sudden, unexpected compromise with the PNC, a new and untested candidate is likely to be heading the party’s list as its nominee for President in the next elections.  So far, at least four candidates are known to be interested in this position. Internal competition is likely to be fierce, some candidates may suffer bruised ego, and without one of the Jagans to give legitimacy to the successful candidate, divisions in the ranks may soon filter down to the grassroots causing disenchantment, apathy, and a low voter turnout.

And thirdly, the party has a record to defend. On the positive side, its efforts on the economy, environment, social services and infrastructural works have been commended. Credible international bodies such as the World Bank and the United Nations have given it a favourable rating in the areas of economics and the environment, respectively. Former Guyanese radio personality in the late 1960s, now an independent consultant, Sir Ronald Sanders, in an article in the June 13, 2010 edition of the Kaieteur News, writes “the new President (after the 2011 elections) will also inherit from Bharrat Jagdeo’s stewardship a country whose economic situation and social services are better than they have been for three decades. Housing, medical facilities and education have all dramatically improved under Jagdeo, as has its infrastructural development particularly water distribution. An economic basket case for 25 years since 1976, Guyana has moved from being a Highly Indebted Poor Country (HPIC) with little or no economic growth to steady growth today. In 2009, Guyana recorded 3.3 per cent growth while the majority of its CARICOM neighbours showed negative growth; public debt fell from 93.1 percent of GDP as of end-2006 to 56.8 percent of GDP in 2009”. And the recently conducted poll by the Caribbean Development Researches Inc. (CADRES), despite the now reported under representation of likely PPP supporters in its sample, has found that infrastructure is a major strength of the Government.

However, the handling of citizens’ safety and security, in addition to issues of corruption, governance and human rights have left much to be desired. After nineteen consecutive years at the helm, failures in these areas cannot be easily blamed on the previous PNC’s twenty-eight years in government. Home invasions, armed robberies, murders and banditry continue unabated across the country. At the same time, while the record of crime solving by police is dismal, claims of police brutality are mounting and making headlines on a regular basis.

The most recent is the shooting death of a high school student at Patentia, preceded a few months earlier by the torture and setting ablaze of the genital area of another teenager while in custody at the Leonora Police station. It is not insignificant that Guyana’s human rights record and police brutality in particular was questioned by countries including Australia, Brazil, Canada, the Netherlands, Sweden and the United Kingdom in May of this year at a United Nations Human Rights Council’s Working Group meeting in Geneva, Switzerland.

And in the area of fighting corruption, one finds it hard to reconcile Government’s talk with lack of action against those in high places. The Polar Bear scam and others show the double standards, and how justice is meted out to the foot soldiers as opposed to those who are well connected. In reflecting on the writings of PPP founder Dr. Cheddi Jagan, one cannot help but wonder how much his legacy has been tainted by his political inheritors and how this will ultimately affect the party’s future prospects. In his autobiographical work, The West on Trial, he wrote of his stint in prison in 1954 “Prompted by me, the prisoners asked the prison authorities to grant me permission to give an address….I concluded my talk by stating that the biggest thieves were outside of the gaol”. The apparent shift away from the values of its founder leader, if not addressed by its next Presidential candidate, may have long term consequences for this party, especially if the major opposition parties can get their houses in order.

On the other hand, this party has a track record of winning at the polls. It is very good at getting out its base supporters to vote. As well, over the years in government, it has gained support among Amerindians by investing heavily in infrastructural work in their communities and by giving high profile ministerial positions to individuals of Amerindian heritage. Incumbency also has its benefits. This is not unique to Guyana. Being in office gives a governing party access to state resources and there is often a thin line separating government business from party business when an election is nearing. Financial resources can be directed to long delayed or new projects in communities where the governing party is seeking to influence voters, and easy access to state controlled media provides it with greater opportunities to get its message across.

The major opposition party, the PNC, is remembered not so much for its accomplishments in Government but for all that was wrong during its years in office, including rigging of elections. It has not been able to recover from its loss in 1992 and its last two leadership contests were very contentious with accusations of malpractices in its handling of these. Senior party officials have also been accused of pandering to elements that consider the party as an African Guyanese party. Some prominent former leadership candidates have been sidelined or have left, the party is significantly weakened, its supporters demoralized and, based on its recent difficulties in meeting its tax obligation to the city of Georgetown, its coffers may be low.
This party is still a major force in Guyanese politics and in the short term it has the potential to recover grounds lost to the AFC. By abandoning street protests and saving itself from accusations of responsibility for violence and looting in the city, it has created an opportunity supportive of genuine efforts to woo Indian Guyanese to its fold in its attempt to rebuild and rebrand. This will be a long term makeover requiring patience, the right leadership, sound policies and a genuine commitment to inclusiveness, and not likely to bear fruits at the next elections. However, if it is able to avoid further self-inflicted wounds and stay the erosion of its credibility, it could see the end of its descent and the beginning of a new era in Guyanese history. This extended period of calm may have also influenced the major aid-donor countries to take greater interest in Guyana’s system of governance and its human rights record and to express their concerns at the UN Human Rights Council Working Group meeting in Geneva, as noted earlier. Their action should be seen as encouraging signs. However, the challenge for the PNC is to be able to look beyond the elections of 2011 and to keep its support base motivated.