Neither Fidel Castro nor the Cuban Revolution is in the best of shape these days, but in spite of reports of serious threats to their health, neither seems ready to give up the ghost just yet. It is simply not in their nature.
Following six sightings last month, after the legendary Cuban strongman had been out of the public eye since handing over power to his brother, Raúl, four years ago, to have surgery for an unspecified affliction, there had been mounting speculation that Fidel, who turns 84 next Friday, would put in an appearance at the July 26 commemoration of the start of the Revolution. He did not and, more surprisingly, there was no speech by either Fidel or Raúl for the first time in 50 years.
Raúl was only biding his time though, and in an address to the National Assembly last Sunday, he announced an easing of economic controls to help revive the country’s ailing economy, as approved by a meeting of the Council of Ministers on July 16-17. In short, licences would be issued to allow the operation of small businesses, paving the way for self-employment, non-state employment and small co-operatives. Also, unproductive or under-employed workers would have to leave the bloated state sector to find other jobs in the new, albeit limited, service and farming enterprises that would be facilitated. In a country that imports 80% of its food, boosting domestic agricultural production is a critical concern. The construction and industrial sectors are also in need of a more productive labour regime.
President Castro however made it clear that he was not embracing large-scale market reforms based on “capitalist recipes.” The state would maintain central control of the economy and there would be no mass firings of workers; no one would be left behind, he promised. According to the president, the “structural change” announced was to make the existing social and economic model more efficient and sustainable and to avoid a collapse of the socialist system, which was “irrevocable.” The intent was to enhance efficiency and productivity in order to raise salaries, increase exports and reduce imports, augment food production and maintain the social goods of the system.
Mr Castro further explained that the success of this process would depend on a political guarantee forged by the ruling Communist Party and the Workers’ Central Union and he denied that there was strong disagreement amongst the party leadership regarding the pace and depth of change, maintaining that the unity of the Revolution was “stronger than ever.”
There is agreement on one salient fact, however: Cuba has been in the midst of a deep economic slump for the past two years, partly due to a fall in the price of its main export, nickel, as well as a decline in tourism, because of the global economic crisis. As a result, imports have been cut, but there is still a shortage of foreign exchange affecting payments to foreign companies doing business with Cuba.
What is not clear is whether the Cuban leadership recognises that these halting steps towards structural reform will not be sufficient to rescue the economy from its current malaise. Critics say that the space made for small and medium-sized enterprises is not enough for what the country needs in terms of decentralisation and private ownership. In addition, the embryonic private sector – employers and workers alike – can expect to be heavily taxed: firms will be taxed on sales; their employees and the self-employed will be taxed on their income and will have to contribute to social security; and employers will also have to pay a tax to the state for the use of the labour force. Seemingly, in the narrow context of Cuban “structural change,” what the state gives with one hand, it generally takes back with the other. Moreover, coupled with the fact that public sector salaries average a mere US$20 per month, even after the limited introduction of wage differentiation and performance bonuses in June 2008, it is difficult to see how people’s purchasing power will increase. Most citizens’ economic activity is therefore expected to continue to take place in the illegal, parallel market.
Raúl Castro is supposed to have a more pragmatic and flexible approach to economic policy than his elder brother, but he is no radical reformer. Since 2006, he has been tweaking the system to ensure its survival rather than doing anything to roll back the Revolution. And whatever change he has introduced has always been with an eye on maintaining control. Indeed, this appears to be the most pressing imperative in the face of an incremental approach by the Obama administration to easing restrictions on Cuba and growing domestic pressure in the United States to end the 48-year embargo, which has undoubtedly hampered growth in Cuba but has served more to increase economic hardship for the Cuban people and delay political freedom, rather than hasten the downfall of the Revolution.
Meanwhile, Fidel Castro’s return to prominence would seem to confirm suspicions that he remains the biggest barrier to deeper structural reform in Cuba. On Monday, he released The Strategic Victory, an autobiographical memoir of his rebel campaign against the dictator Fulgencio Batista, and announced that he was working on a second book. Tomorrow, he is expected to address an extraordinary session of the National Assembly for the first time in four years, to expound on the international situation, including presumably his theory of an imminent nuclear war involving the United States, Israel and Iran.
Now, after more than 50 years of stubborn and often heroic defiance, which have encompassed impressive advances in the fields of education, public health and social welfare, as well as, it has to be said, repressive politics and counter-productive economics, it will be interesting to see how this particular tilt at the windmills will fare. Unfortunately, the romance has long gone out of the Revolution and attempts to safeguard its legacy seem increasingly desperate in the face of the inevitability of change. But, to paraphrase Mark Twain, previous reports of its demise have, of course, been greatly exaggerated…
