Dear Editor,
An opinion survey conducted in July by the North American Caribbean Teachers Association (NACTA) showed former Chairman of the opposition PNC, Winston Murray, as the front runner to lead a coalition of opposition forces under a ‘big tent,’ should it materialize to challenge the PPP in next year’s general elections. Mr Murray faces close competition from AFC Chairman, Raphael Trotman, former Elections Chairman Joe Singh, and PNC Leader Robert Corbin to lead a coalition. However, the idea of a big tent coalition has generated lukewarm support among voters garnering less political support than if the parties were to contest the elections as separate entities. People say the internal contradictions among the various parties and leadership egos make it impractical for the parties to come together as a unit, and that even if they succeed in uniting, the tent will soon collapse because of personality conflict. Some voters who pledge support for the AFC say they will not vote (or will vote PPP) if the party links up with the PNC which is viewed as a pariah among many (primarily Indian) voters. And some who support (primarily Africans) the PNC say the party should not yield the leadership indicating they will not vote if the PNC compromises on leadership making it difficult to put together an opposition coalition.
NACTA is a New York-based polling group with no affiliation with any political party. It has been conducting polls regularly in Guyana for over two decades. Last July’s poll was conducted to find out opinion on several contemporary issues. The survey randomly interviewed 980 likely voters to yield a demographically representative sample (45% Indians, 30% Africans, 15% Mixed, 9% Amerindians, 1% Others) of the population. The poll was carried out by several interviewers in face-to-face contact and was coordinated by Vishnu Bisram. The results of the poll were analyzed at a 95 per cent significance level and a statistical sampling error of plus or minus 3% was found.
Based on the poll’s findings, people are not very confident that any party will get a majority of votes at the next election, suggesting the victorious party may need the help of post-election coalition partners to cobble together a majority in the Parliament. However, voters said that whether a party gets a majority depends largely on its candidate. It is felt that the PPP is more likely to get a majority than any of the other parties or a big tent coalition.
Asked if they expect any party to get more than 50% support at the next election, 43% said “yes,” with 41% saying “no” and 16% saying “not sure.” Almost everyone agrees that the PPP stands a better chance of getting a majority than any other party and that its presidential candidate will determine how much support it garners.
Asked if they would like to see the opposition forces come together under a big tent to challenge the PPP as being promoted by some politicians, 37% said yes with 48% saying no and 15% offering no response.
Asked if there is a coalition, who they would like to see as its presidential candidate, Winston Murray leads with 16%, closely followed by Raphael Trotman with 14%, Robert Corbin 11%, and Joe Singh at 9% with others trailing. The largest bloc of voters, 33%, are not attracted to any of the potential opposition presidential candidates.
NACTA polled respondents on how they would vote if there is an opposition coalition and if there is no coalition. The findings will be released in a subsequent report.
Do you expect any political party to get more than 50% at the next elections?
Would you like the opposition parties to come together under a big tent?
If there is a big tent coalition, who would you prefer as its presidential candidate?
Potential Candidate %
Yours faithfully,
Vishnu Bisram
