KABUL (Reuters) – Afghanistan braced for a day of violence today as voters headed to the polls for a parliamentary election that is a crucial test of government credibility and the strength of its security forces.
The Taliban has vowed to disrupt the poll and urged potential voters to stay at home — even as the government called on Afghans to come out to polling stations for what is their second chance to choose their own parliament.
“We should try to do our best under the current circumstances. It is very important that the Afghan people come out and vote,” Afghan President Hamid Karzai, who was re-elected last year in a poll marred by fraud accusations, told reporters.
It will not be clear for several weeks at least who among the almost 2,500 candidates have won the 249 seats on offer in the wolesi jirga, or lower house of parliament. Preliminary results from today’s voting will not be known until Oct. 8 at the earliest, with final results not expected before Oct. 30.
Election observers expect thousands of complaints from losing candidates, with Afghanistan’s own poll watchdog expecting a “disputatious” election, which could delay the process further.
Almost 300,000 Afghan soldiers and police are providing security for the poll, backed up by some 150,000 foreign troops.
Kabul so far has been quiet since a heavy clampdown was imposed yesterday.
A wave of abductions spread across much of the rest of the country yesterday however, with 23 kidnappings of people working on the elections, including two candidates.
Significant security failures would be a major setback, with Washington watching closely before US President Barack Obama conducts a war strategy review in December likely to examine the pace and scale of US troop withdrawals.
Observers fear security worries could lead to a low voter turnout, as it did last year when the Taliban staged dozens of attacks but failed to disrupt the process entirely.
However, voter turnout was very low last year in the south and east where Pashtuns, Afghanistan’s main ethnic group, dominate and where the Taliban has its strongest support.
Corruption and fraud are also serious concerns after a deeply flawed presidential ballot last year. A third of votes cast for Karzai were thrown out as fake. Even though he is not standing, today’s vote is seen as a test of Karzai’s credibility.
Washington believes corruption weakens the central government and its ability to build up institutions like the Afghan security forces, which in turn determines when Western troops in Afghanistan will be able to leave.
Voter turnout may also be hit by cynicism and disillusionment. Billions of dollars in foreign aid cash have flowed into Afghanistan over the past nine years but, for many people, have brought no real improvement in their lives.
