TEHRAN (Reuters) – Mahmoud Ahmadinejad’s list of enemies is long, ranging from western governments to reformists at home and emerging rivals in his own hardline camp.
But support from Iran’s Revolu-tionary Guards and Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei still ensures him the upper hand.
Discord among the hardline rulers in the Islamic Republic has never been so public. The rift has little to do with Iran’s nuclear row with the West or with the pro-reform opposition, which rejects Ahmadinejad’s 2009 re-election as rigged.
So bad has the feuding become that Khamenei admonished faction leaders last month and made a public statement, flanked by Ahmadinejad and his main rivals, on the need for unity.
As a former Guards officer, Ahmadinejad has valuable support among the elite corps and the volunteer Basij paramilitary force, which quelled the post-electoral anti-government unrest, the bloodiest protests in Iran in the past three decades.
Some senior clerics accuse Ahmadinejad of undermining the historical role of the clergy in an Islamic state increasingly defined by the raw political power and dense network of business interests of the Revolutionary Guards. It was the Guards who emerged as the biggest winners from last year’s turmoil.
Clerics played a key role in mobilising the masses that led to the 1979 Islamic revolution. Some say their role is being questioned, not explicitly but by the course of events.
“The institution of the … Guards has gradually eclipsed the institution of the clergy, in terms of their economic, political, and foreign policy influence,” said Karim Sadjadpour, an associate at the Carnegie Endowment in Washington.
“Iran is (now) more a military autocracy.”
It is Khamenei, though, who appoints top commanders of the corps, which has always been loyal to the leadership and to the pillars of the revolution.
“I don’t recall a single example of them being openly critical of Khamenei,” said Sadjadpour.
‘Nationalistic themes’
The opposition sees a “militarisation” of the state through the growing power of the Guards, whom the West accuses of promoting a nuclear and missile programme aimed at atomic arms. Tehran says it seeks only power stations. Ahmadinejad’s resort to nationalistic themes has alienated some hardliners, contradicting principles set by revolutionary leader Ayatollah Ruhollah Khomeini such as the primacy of Islam.
However, analysts say the nationalist approach was a tactic to widen electoral support for parliamentary polls next year.
“He has lost the support of hardliners… Many Iranians have a strong sense of national identity,” said analyst Syrus Mashayekhi. “Ahmadinejad’s aim is to win their votes.”
Sadjadpour said the presidential vote and its aftermath had undermined the “legitimacy and influence” of Iran’s top leaders.
“But Khamenei remains at the apex of Iran’s power pyramid,” he said. “His modus operandi has been to rule over people (elites) who despise one another but are loyal to him.”
A delay in releasing one of 3 Americans held in Iran last year on spying charges was one symptom of factional rivalry. The judiciary unexpectedly blocked Ahmadinejad’s intervention to free her, saying the legal process was incomplete.
The head of the judiciary is a brother of parliament speaker Ali Larijani, a leading conservative rival of Ahmadinejad.
“The public discontent is increasing … even some hardline people are losing their faith in the system,” said a political analyst, who asked not to be named.
Although the world’s fifth largest oil exporter, Iran is finally feeling the pressure as a fourth round of international sanctions aimed at curbing its nuclear ambitions begins to bite.
Ahmadinejad has a fight on his hands, facing popular discontent over high prices and inflation as well as criticism within the establishment over populist economic policies.
The outcome of the rift may change Iran’s approach to the outside world, analysts and Tehran-based diplomats said.
“The rising power of the Guards may toughen Iran’s approach regarding the nuclear impasse or other foreign policy matters,” said a senior western diplomat, who asked not to be named.
Analyst Reza Sehhat, however, sees changes in political calculation rather than goals.
“It does not matter whether the president is a hardliner or a reformist … major policies will remain the same … but tactics may change,” he said.