The rotating chairmanship of the Union of South American Nations (UNASUR) was officially transferred from Ecuador to Guyana at a meeting of foreign ministers, on Tuesday, in New York, in the margins of the UN General Assembly, and it was agreed to hold UNASUR’s next summit in Georgetown on November 26. The other members of the group are Argentina, Brazil, Bolivia, Chile, Colombia, Paraguay, Peru, Suriname, Uruguay and Venezuela.
With legislative elections in Venezuela this Sunday and a general election in Brazil on October 3, it is probably a good time to take stock of the evolving geopolitical situation in the region, as Guyana looks ahead to hosting the summit and presiding over the continental grouping for the next year.
Brazil, the fifth largest country in the world, has the biggest economy in Latin America and borders all the other countries of South America except Chile and Ecuador. It therefore sees itself as the natural leader of South America, if not all Latin America and, quite possibly, eventually, the Caribbean. President Lula da Silva has played a crucial role as a mediator in the region, while Brazil has made great strides in countering the hemispheric hegemony of the USA. Additionally, President Lula has from time to time exerted a moderating influence over President Hugo Chávez of Venezuela.
Apart from its traditional bilateral relations with its neighbours and the rest of the hemisphere, Brazil has also used multilateral diplomacy to great effect, through mechanisms such as the Treaty for Amazonian Cooperation, the Rio Group, UNASUR, the Organization of American States and a key Lula initiative, the Latin American and Caribbean Integration and Development Summit, which has morphed into the embryonic Community of Latin American and Caribbean States, announced in Cancún, Mexico, last February. The cohesiveness and consolidation of UNASUR would therefore appear to be pivotal to Brazil’s regional strategy.
Now, after two consecutive presidential terms, Mr Lula cannot present himself for re-election. His handpicked candidate, Dilma Rousseff, who has never run for public office, enjoys a healthy advantage in the opinion polls over the Governor of Sao Paulo, José Serra, due mainly to Mr Lula’s overwhelming popularity across the country. If she wins, Ms Rousseff is expected to continue Mr Lula’s economic and diplomatic policies, including advocating greater regional integration and pushing for increased free trade and foreign trade expansion. But it is doubtful that the untested and technocratic Ms Rousseff would be able to wield the same degree of personal influence as the charismatic Mr Lula.
If, on the other hand, Mr Serra were to win, he would also be expected to continue Mr Lula’s free trade and market diversification policies, although he would most likely seek a closer relationship with the USA and perhaps take a less independent approach to Latin America’s leftist governments.
It will be interesting to see what direction Brazil will take under Mr Lula’s successor, whoever is inaugurated on January 1, 2011. Nevertheless, Brazil’s political stability and economic growth are expected to continue and no doubt its regional and international protagonism will be undiminished. And the possibility cannot be ignored that if it is Ms Rousseff, she may simply be keeping the seat warm for Mr Lula, in case he decides on a comeback after a sabbatical from the presidency.
During his tenure, President Lula, like every other leader in the hemisphere, has had to contend with the rise of President Chávez, his proclamation of ‘21st century socialism’ and the establishment of ALBA, the Bolivarian Alliance for the Peoples of Our America, formerly the Bolivarian Alternative for the Americas. As Mr Lula nears the end of his term, it is ironic that Mr Chávez is also facing an election, the result of which will determine whether he attains the two-thirds majority he is seeking in the National Assembly to press ahead with his ‘Bolivarian revolution’ and thereby continue to promote his own brand of anti-imperialist integration in the region and strengthen the radical left in Latin America.
Latin American unity is a tenuous concept at the best of times. This year has seen new presidents in Chile, Colombia and Suriname. The first two are considered centre-right and the former dictator with the chequered history next door may be more difficult to categorise, though he is expected to strengthen ties with both Brazil and Venezuela. But the balance of power between left and right in the region may be changing and, in this context, there are currently three discernible geopolitical areas. The first runs roughly from Mexico to Chile and includes most of Central America, Panama, Dominican Republic, Colombia and Peru, which all seem to have adopted the mantra of globalization and have pursued free trade agreements with the USA. The second is ALBA, comprising Venezuela, Bolivia, Cuba, Ecuador and Nicaragua, along with the Caricom states of Antigua and Barbuda, Dominica and St Vincent and the Grenadines, who seem more interested in Venezuelan largesse than any fixed ideology (Guyana enjoys observer status and Suriname is widely expected to join the grouping). Thirdly, MERCOSUR, the Southern Common Market, made up of Argentina, Brazil, Paraguay and Uruguay, although admittedly, there are strong political and economic ties between Argentina and Venezuela, whose entry has been held up by reluctance in the Paraguayan parliament to ratify its accession.
Guyana is now at the centre of a complex, unfolding scenario and Takuba Lodge is undoubtedly studying strategic options for the consideration of the President. The question is whether we can bring any real influence to bear on the continental process or whether we will simply settle for the diplomatic role of keeping things on an even keel. Whatever the strategy, this is at the very least a golden opportunity to develop our continental vision and strengthen our position as a bridge between Latin America and the Caribbean.
