The thing about Guyanese politics at the moment is that everything is in suspension. As remarked in an earlier editorial it seems that this will be a last-minute game. Since Guyanese politics is so personality-based, much hinges in the first instance on who the presidential candidates will be, although in the case of the PNC, there may be other developments to be taken into consideration as well. Mr Donald Ramotar’s intimation last week that the PPP will go with tried and true methods, so to speak, when choosing a presidential candidate has narrowed the Freedom House field slightly. Since the two crucial entities in the selection process will be the party’s Executive and Central Committees, Mr Moses Nagamootoo will be effectively ruled out as a prospect.
It does not, of course, rule out the possibility of a third term for the President, or even that some grounds might be found for postponing the election. In that regard, Mr Raphael Trotman’s rather hasty suggestion of an opposition election boycott because of the government’s refusal to countenance an international probe of the phantom squad, hardly seems the best of wisdom for all kinds of reasons. Not the least of these is that the current administration might not be averse to the idea of a poll postponement at all.
But whatever manoeuvrings are under way at the political level, the electorate does not give the appearance of being at all concerned. The younger generation in particular, is showing little interest in the political scene, which is hardly surprising since a lot of the discussion is still about the past, rather than about issues which affect them. As was noted in a report in this newspaper last month in relation to voter apathy, turnout even at the last election was unusually low for this country. In 2006, for example, it was 68.2%, while in 2001 it was 91.76% and in 1997, 88.42%.
Both the two major parties lost votes in 2006 as compared to 2001, more especially the PNCR which polled almost 50,000 fewer than in the previous election. The figure for the PPP/C was 25,000, some of which might have been accounted for by migration, but surely not all. Owing to the fact that the PNCR had such a poor showing, the incumbent party secured 54% of the votes of those who cast their ballots in 2006, although the numbers represented only 37% of all registered voters.
While in the same report referred to above, Mr Ramotar said that the drop in voter turnout in the last election had not reached alarming proportions, one suspects that there must be some concern in PPP inner circles that there might be a further diminution in the numbers next year. Since even in their heartland the party suffered a decline in the number of ballots cast for them in 2006, they would not want the situation repeated let alone aggravated in 2011 in circumstances where the opposition managed to get their vote out successfully. The ethnic arithmetic on which they have depended in the past is not quite as fixed as it used to be, although it still favours them.
As everyone knows, the 2002 census gives Indians as accounting for 43.5% of the population; Africans, 30.8%; Mixed races, 16.7%; Amerindians, 9.2% and all other groups, 0.6%. It does not follow from this, of course, that the breakdown of the electoral register will be identical. To get a more accurate picture it would be necessary to take into account the age cohorts which would be of voting age in 2011 – assuming that these are given for the racial groups, rather than the population in general. Be that as it may, the general census figures no doubt provide a rough guide to the racial affiliations of voters.
Save for the last election, the PNC routinely secures 40-42% of the ballot, and it must be assumed, therefore, that a substantial number of those who describe themselves as Mixed race give their votes to the party. One must assume too, that a much smaller number from this bracket votes for the PPP. The problem for both parties is that this category is not a discrete group, and therefore no pitch can be made for it in the same way as is done for the Indians, Africans and Amerindians. As has been observed many times before, to help make up its numbers, the PPP has concentrated its efforts on attracting the Amerindian vote, which is identifiable and is located in specific geographical areas.
While in the urban areas there may be evidence of some electors attempting to break out of the racial mould in which elections have been imprisoned for so many decades, it would be naïve to suppose that 2011 will not reflect in a larger sense the traditional voting patterns that have been with us so long. One wonders, therefore, whether the various parties have actually sat down to do some detailed statistical work, to figure out exactly where their votes are going to come from. If anyone has done this, it would surely be the PPP, which appears altogether more organized when it comes to ensuring votes.
But of course the opposition across the board is in something of disarray, with in-fighting and uncertainty about exactly in what form and with which leader or leaders they will be going into the election. It is hard to organize a campaign when there are so many imponderables, let alone energize a voter base, although that in itself is no reason for them not doing their statistical homework. There is one thing, however, that all the parties in this country should be doing, and that is ensuring that their constituents are registered. That will not cure the electorate’s current lack of interest in politics, but it will enable people to vote if they suddenly feel inclined to do so next year.
