On Monday, October 25, EU member states will review their common position towards Cuba. Although the overall approach is unlikely to change, there is the possibility that Europe may consider the development of a bilateral dialogue about a new institutional framework within which to develop future relations.
Europe’s common policy and its implementation continues to divide European member states. First put in place in 1996, and since eased in implementation in 2008, it established parameters intended to govern relations between European nations and Cuba. Intended to draw Cuba into becoming a western style pluralist democracy observing human rights and Western political norms, it sets out in detail and in language unacceptable to Cuba, the conditions under which Europe might ease political and economic relations.
The policy is contentious between EU states. Some like Spain, that have strong cultural and economic ties, want dialogue and find it hard to agree with the political line taken by nations like the Czech Republic and Germany, which have strong ideological objections based on their recent past.
There is also disagreement over the value of the policy as Cuba has dramatically diversified and deepened its global relationships and has only undertaken reforms of its own choosing. It has also continued to manage its international relations in a manner that effectively plays off the improvement in relations with some nations against a deterioration in that with others.
Any change to Europe’s policy has become additionally complicated by amendments to the EU Treaty that have given greater power to the European Parliament in decision-making. In the Parliament there is a strong majority in favour of there being no change in EU-Cuba relations unless there is political change, as evidenced by parliamentarians recent decision to name a Cuban dissident as the recipient of its 2010 Sakharov Prize.
In the last weeks Cuba has been pressing for a new European position. Its Foreign Minister, Bruno Rodriguez, has argued that Europe’s position is obsolete and amounts to meddling in Cuba’s internal affairs. Cuba is prepared, he said, to continue a dialogue as long as it respects Cuba’s sovereignty and does not interfere in domestic affairs. Earlier in the year, following exchanges with the Roman Catholic Church and with Spain, Cuba released all dissidents arrested in March 2003 and has entered into a dialogue with the church on the internal social situation and the management of economic reform.
Irrespective, the sense is that tomorrow, Europe is likely to reaffirm its common position as modified in June 2008. However, the EU may consider the development of an initiative to build a new type of relationship, given that Cuba is the only nation within the Latin American and Caribbean region that has no form or association, trade or partnership agreement with Europe of any kind.
In this context, an important longer term signal came in May of this year when Europe adopted a first Country Strategy Paper for Cuba that included an indicative allocation of €20M for the period 2011-2013 using the EU Development Cooperation Instrument. This ninety-six page paper identified priority sectors for co-operation in the area of food security, the environment and adaptation to climate change, and the development of expertise through exchanges, training and studies.
If there is to be a new agreement, it would not be without irony as in 2000 Cuba became a full member of the ACP and indicated during the negotiations for the Cotonou Convention that it was then prepared to sign the treaty which included clauses on human rights. However, when those negotiating for Cuba learnt that if they did, European nations would use the same clauses to immediately suspend Cuba as a beneficiary, they withdrew.
The internal situation within Cuba itself is challenging, with signs of social tension emerging as a result of the measures that government has recently adopted to change the nature of the state’s role in aspects of the economy. In common with many nations, Cuba is having to address how to deal with its huge, inefficient and costly public sector, which presently includes some eighty per cent of a workforce of around 5 million persons.
Government has embarked on a economic restructuring process aimed at cutting costs through drastic cuts involving making redundant 0.5 million state workers by March 2011 in a diverse range of sectors from hospitals to hotels. There are also suggestions that the possible intention may be that around 1 million workers in total will eventually be re-employed largely through self-employment in agriculture and basic consumer services, a process that is being shaped in fits and starts.
The policy reflects a strategy revealed publicly earlier this year in an address to the Young Communist League. Then President Castro argued that the country employed “hundreds of thousands of excess workers.” He warned then that while “no one will be left without shelter” and that every effort would be made to create the necessary conditions for every Cuban to have a job, the state would not be responsible for giving work to everyone. “Citizens themselves should be the ones most interested in finding socially useful work,” he said. The moves are likely to be followed by cuts in public expenditure and new taxes.
A signed editorial in official Cuban Communist Party newspaper Granma on October 5 made clear that government cannot continue to run up large spending deficits, noting that 46.7 per cent of state spending goes to providing free medical care and education through college for all citizens. “Spending cannot be thought of as a right, and in order to spend, you must have proper revenue,” said the editorial. The article also singled out the high cost of providing basic food to all Cubans and the need for a consensus on the “rational use of resources and a permanent practice of saving.”
Cuba is undergoing significant change. It is not about to about to alter its system but is likely to experience significant social stress as its population comes to terms with a changed economic structure. Whether this will result in a Cuban version of Vietnam’s ‘Doi Moi’ economic restructuring process remains to be seen, but it suggests that Europe should do much more to find ways to engage that create a framework based on co-operation and development rather than attempts at political coercion.
Previous columns can be found at www.caribbean-council.org
