Dear Editor,
The continual pushing back of the naming of a presidential candidate by the PPP seems to signal a dilemma of almost unsurmountable proportions.
As Freddie Kissoon and others have indicated, Donald Ramotar seems to be the favoured member of the Bharrat Jagdeo clique. Naturally it would be expected that the President would have easily prevailed and that Mr Ramotar would already have been campaigning. But clearly that has not happened. Why?
To begin with the PPP constitution does not address the process of the selection of a presidential candidate. When Cheddi Jagan was both leader and General Secretary his elevation to candidate status was automatic. Janet’s was mired in controversy and Mr Jagdeo was a supposedly non-threatening compromise that was to enable Freedom House to call the shots, a strategy which awesomely backfired.
Via a process of micro-management, President Jagdeo not only took control of the government away from Freedom House, but asserted his ‘power’ over the old guard to the extent that he publicly insulted the matriarch, Janet, and silenced the other stalwarts by making them beholden to him. Those who were not beholden were easily sidelined, Moses Nagamootoo and Navin Chanderpaul being the two with the highest profiles. As I had mentioned previously, had Freedom House spoken to Mr Jagdeo’s batchmates at Patrice Lumumba University, it would have been known that he had returned to Guyana with the express intention of both becoming president and minimizing the power of the old guard.
In fact, it has been argued in some circles that in his desire to continue to hold on to power Mr Jagdeo would have been entering into an agreement with the PNC to amend the constitution so he would be eligible for a third term.
Whatever the grounds for such speculation, the rumour mills seem to be working overtime to manufacture scenarios under which a constitutional crisis would be created and Jagdeo and Corbin would collaborate on ensuring that Jagdeo continues in power for a while longer, supposedly until certain things kick in, including obtaining the money from Norway.
This too would supposedly provide additional scope for the PNC’s disarray to intensify or for the old guard/ Burnhamites to take control and alienate potential moderate supporters and those disenchanted with PPP, and enable the PPP to ensure that its core support is appropriately buttressed and ready to swing into action. By then also supposedly Mr Ramotar would either have consolidated his position or Mr Jagdeo’s protégé, Robert Persaud, would have been sufficiently elevated, thereby allowing Mr Jagdeo to become Guyana’s Putin.
Of course, somewhere in all of this is the apparent disregard of the public pronouncements of both Jagdeo and Corbin that the former is not interested in contravening the constitution to hold on to power, nor is he interested in another term, and that the latter is neither interested in collaborating with Jagdeo in any constitutional crisis scenario, nor is he interested in being the presidential candidate of the PNC.
Also there are the assumptions that both Jagdeo and Corbin would get their respective parties and those parties’ MPs to line up behind them. And, of course, no one seems to know with any certainty what is in this for Corbin or the PNC. Power-sharing?
Not according to the PPP’s public pronouncements on this issue, although the AFC may want to think that this could be a measure to exclude it from the reins of power, given that that ‘third party’ seems quite confident of victory in 2011.
Now, with the current impasse between GAWU and GuySuCo, Freedom House has not only been flexing its political muscle but also sending a clear message that, given that President Jagdeo’s days are numbered, the old guard is beginning to reassert itself.
And this could be interpreted as not boding well for Mr Ramotar. After all it must not be forgotten that he obtained the position of General Secretary by default; it was foisted upon him after all other credible candidates turned it down. Thus, quite clearly, no one in the higher echelons of the PPP power structure ever imagined him as presidential material. Instead he was seen as the consummate party loyalist. Thus in announcing his presidential candidacy he stepped out of character and that must surely have incensed Freedom House.
Now that Mr Jagdeo’s hold on the lid is loosening, Freedom House must surely be exploring its options. And it would seem that the two viable candidates are Ralph Ramkarran and Moses Nagamootoo. There is little doubt that were the party membership allowed to vote for the presidential candidate, Moses would win hands down. But with the decision being left in the hands of the power structure, some commentators were of the view that Moses stood no chance. However, if one were to analyze the make-up of the power structure one would realize that such a conclusion is not a foregone one.
For one, the central committee is dominated by party loyalists and old guards, with only a handful being the President’s men. Ditto for both the Secretariat and the Executive Committee. And with the fear of presidential backlash gradually diminishing as the election draws closer, Moses and his backers may well fancy his chances of tying up the nomination. For while Ralph is a tenable candidate, not only does he not possess the passion for the post as Moses does, but Ralph has neither the grass roots popularity nor the cross-over appeal of Moses.
And unless a backroom deal is in the making, Moses should easily outvote Ralph in both the Central Committee and the Executive Committee.
So the million dollar question is this: does President Jagdeo, who has outwitted, delimited and diminished Freedom House for most of his presidency, have one last cunning strategy up his sleeve, or will the old guard succeed in wresting back total control?
Yours faithfully,
Annan Boodram