Forecasters attached to the HydroMet Department of the Ministry of Agriculture have benefited from a numerical weather prediction programme which will improve the forecasting capability of the agency.
The one-year programme, which was undertaken as part of the Indian Technical and Economic Cooperation (ITEC) bilateral agreement between the governments of Guyana and India, was coordinated by Dr Rama Rao, an Indian expert in the field of meteorology. Dr Rao was based at the National Weather Watch Centre at Timehri.
The goals of the project were to investigate the monthly climatological circulation features over Guyana based recorded data, which included sea surface temperature as well as observed rainfall data analysis of selected weather stations in Guyana.
In addition, the project investigated drought and flood years experienced here as well as weather research and forecasting model (WRF) validation and operationalisation for three days real time forecast, including heavy rainfall prediction.
According to Dr Rao, based on analysis conducted using rainfall data for Georgetown and Timehri between 1916 and 2007, El Niño/La Niña weather phenomena are directly related to the May-June and December-January rains experienced here annually.
He said that analytical data indicates that the impacts of the two weather phenomena are more prevalent during the latter part of the year. These analyses along with other aspects of the one-year project will be utilised for future weather prediction activities.
The WRF weather model is described as a next generation mesoscale modelling system, which was developed by the NCAR group in the United States.
The model provides a resolution of 5-5km nesting which according to the Met Office is a vast improvement from the 100Km resolutions previously utilised.
However, for the project, and in view of the limitation of computer power, including a one to two-hour time frame for downloading the required data from a US-based database, only a 15km resolution model over Guyana was made operational to generate real time forecast up to 84 hours. As a result, real-time forecasts from 8 am on any given day for a 72-hour time frame will be produced.
The forecast model provides coverage over all of Guyana and parts of the Caribbean region.
Agriculture Minister Robert Persaud, during a feature address, stated that the numerical model programme has “lifted the capacity of the HydroMet Service.” He said that the programme is an aspect of the government’s drive to ensure that the meteorological service is adequately resourced for climate change activities.
He said the authorities are working to strengthen the capability of the HydroMet Service and he elaborated that keen attention is being paid to training. He said the unit has come a far way since the 2005 Great Flood.
Persaud noted that during that time there was only one trained forecaster attached to the Met Office. He said since then five persons have been trained as forecasters while later this year another four persons will add to that number.
The minister noted however, that much more work needed to be done by the HydroMet department, including in the area of public awareness and according to him, “the public has to understand the information” being provided. According to the minister, the government will continue to work with international agencies in improving the services of the department.
