It appears very likely that Mr Robert Corbin will be the first Leader of the People’s National Congress (PNC) not to hold the office of President of Guyana. His announcement last year that he would not be the party’s presidential candidate has meant that his political career is unlikely to end on the note that he might have hoped for.
Mr Corbin never publicly gave a reason for not taking a second tilt at the presidency. One can therefore do no more than speculate as to why it has turned out that way and whether or not the choice was entirely his. Of course, the local political rumour mill being what it is, one is inclined to take account of speculation that his public pronouncement notwithstanding, Mr Corbin’s name might yet appear on the list of candidates to lead the PNCR into the general elections. For the moment at least, however, Mr Corbin has to be taken at his word which makes it entirely permissible to explore the reasons for him not being the party’s presidential candidate and what that means for his personal political future.
The fact that Mr Corbin will be the first Leader of the People’s National Congress not to be its nominee for the presidency of Guyana is itself a matter of significance, and while, again, we can do no more than speculate in the absence of hard information, it is altogether reasonable to assume that the reason for this significant shift in tradition is an important one.
Force of circumstances, the best known of these being ill health, are usually the most common reasons why politicians pass up opportunities to hold power. In political terms Mr Corbin is by no means old enough to be contemplating retirement from active politics, though it will be recalled that he suffered a recent illness, serious enough for him to be flown abroad for treatment. There is no telling whether that episode may have caused Mr Corbin – probably in consultation with his family – to review his political career and if indeed such a review has taken place, whether he may not have concluded that he is simply not up to the physical rigours of contesting the presidency.
The other likely reasons may not have been entirely up to Mr Corbin. The ensuing vigorous intra-party rivalries for the presidential candidature inside both the PPP/C and the PNCR are a manifestation of the end of the era of maximum leaders in Guyanese politics. Both of the country’s major political parties have had to face leadership succession issues following the passing of their founding leaders. Since the death of Dr Jagan, although Donald Ramotar has replaced him as the party’s General Secretary, the PPP has not sought to anoint another maximum leader. Instead, decision-making within the party has relied on its traditional leadership structure, though this approach appears at times to give rise to factionalism at the leadership level. The PNC, by electing first Desmond Hoyte then Corbin to succeed Forbes Burnham has been far more vulnerable to both formal and informal leadership challenges.
While both political parties have managed, up until now, to deal with their internal leadership issues, both Mr Hoyte and Mr Corbin had to face internal criticism of their leadership. In the case of Mr Corbin the criticism has been more persistent, more open and has gone as far as formal challenges to his leadership. He may have survived those challenges, though a point has been reached where party members and supporters began to wonder aloud as to whether such chances as the PNCR may have of unseating the PPP/C at this year’s general elections might not lie with not fielding Mr Corbin as its presidential candidate. What is therefore likely is that the decision to field an alternative presidential candidate may very well not have been left entirely to Mr Corbin.
Arguably, Mr Corbin might have chosen to challenge those internal party views that he should step aside from the presidential candidature and insist the automaticity on his candidature in the tradition of the party. That, however, would have created the impression among those within the leadership of the party who did not favour his candidature that he was more concerned about his personal political image than with the PNCR’s chances of regaining political power. The outcome may well have been high-level resignations from the party and serious damage to the confidence of its supporters in its ability to unseat the PPP/C; and in the event that Mr Corbin had contested the presidency and lost he would then have been compelled to carry the can. That would have heralded an unceremonious and controversial end to his political career.
It may be, therefore, that Mr Corbin was caught in a political dilemma that compelled him to give up any hopes of being the party’s presidential candidate. And while it was widely felt that Mr Corbin’s announcement that he would not run for the presidency might have been followed by his departure from the leadership of the PNCR, his retention of the position is probably not that difficult to explain. Having been duly as elected party leader, attempts to force him out of office would have been an unwise move on the part of the leadership of the party. Breaking with the tradition of automatically fielding the party leader as its presidential candidate was a far easier – and more palatable – decision for the party to make.
In effect, by conceding the presidential candidature Mr Corbin, it appears, has secured an extension of his own political career. Perhaps more significantly, he has – from his vantage point as party leader – retained a considerable say in who eventually emerges as the party’s presidential candidate.
Still, Mr Corbin’s political future remains far from settled. Assuming that the PNCR unseats the ruling party at this year’s poll, then sooner rather than later, Mr Corbin’s position as party leader will come into question since the issue of whether an elected PNCR president ought not to assume the leadership of the party will almost certainly become a matter for consideration. On the other hand, a defeated PNCR would presumably move to begin to effect internal changes to its modus operandi that would likely include the election of a new leader.
Political assessments of this nature are often confounded by unseen events and swift and unpredictable changes in circumstances. Robert Corbin is a seasoned and experienced campaigner who would certainly not be unmindful of securing a pleasing political legacy given the fact that politics and dedicated service to his political party have been the major pursuit of almost all his adult life. What is certain, however, is that 2011, perhaps more than any preceding year, could give definitive and lasting shape to Robert Corbin’s political legacy.