PARIS, (Reuters) – World wheat supplies are so tight and grain demand so strong that any new hiccup in a major producing area would fire already bullish markets and send European prices near or beyond the all-time highs hit in 2008.
Prices of wheat, a food staple in many developing countries, were at the head of a surge in food prices in 2010, sparking concerns among world leaders that any further increase could trigger deadly riots like those seen two years ago.
High food costs are already behind violent protests in North African countries and the unrest that toppled Tunisia’s president and prompted neighbouring states to speed up wheat purchases to secure supplies.
And swelling concerns about crops in top producing countries after adverse weather, including dryness in the United States, coupled with ever rising demand, are likely to keep supporting global wheat prices in 2011, analysts say.
“If Mother Nature is unfavourable, which is what it is doing at the moment, we are going to prolong the agony and we have not necessarily seen the peak,” said James Dunsterville, head analyst with Geneva-based Agrinews.
In the European Union, the world’s second-biggest wheat exporter, prices doubled in the 12 months to Jan. 18, mainly boosted by Russia’s ban on exports after a severe drought slashed its crops and by strong North African demand.
U.S. wheat prices also surged over the past year, though to a lesser extent, partly due to lower exports and ample stocks.
WEATHER WORRIES
There is little sign of relief on the horizon for prices of quality wheat. Analysts do not expect Russia to open its gates to exports until at least July.
Devastating floods in Australia and dry weather in Latin America and parts of top exporter the United States are feeding a bullish mood in global grain markets, with prices in Europe hitting nearly three-year highs every week since mid-December.
“Market prices are very vulnerable in case of adverse weather effects, because the cushion is so low after the crop losses encountered in the current crop year,” said Cartsen Fritsch, an analyst at Commerzbank commodity research. European milling wheat futures are now only 15 percent away from their all-time high of 300 euros per tonne in 2007/08. Analysts say it would not take much to fill the gap.
“If there are additional crop failures, we could see prices reach $9 a bushel or 300 euros per tonne over the course of the year,” Fritsch said from his Frankfurt office.
At $9, Chicago Board of Trade wheat futures would still be 32 percent below the 2008 high of $13.30 a bushel.
Analysts said U.S. wheat futures are unlikely to revisit their 2008 peaks as expectations of higher global wheat crops in 2011 would keep a lid on prices, even in case of weather damage, with the most ambitious estimate at around $9.
“It certainly pays to grow stuff at the moment, so that’s why I’m not saying we will hit $10 per bushel. Prices will be somewhat moderated by the big supply response,” said Adam Davis, senior grain trader at Melbourne-based fund Merricks Capital.
QUALITY SPLIT
Key in the coming months will also be the amount of quality wheat available to meet strong uncovered demand, analysts say.
High-protein wheat is in short supply globally because of weather setbacks in Canada and Germany and now in another major exporter, Australia, where water-logged fields reduced most of the current crop to low-grade feed wheat.
“There is plenty of wheat globally, but what quality of wheat do we have?” said Mark Schultz, chief market analyst at Northstar Commodity Investment in Minneapolis, Minnesota.
This concern is being reflected in the growing premium for the higher-protein wheat represented by Kansas City Board of Trade and Minneapolis Grain Exchange futures over the benchmark Chicago Board of Trade contracts.
Minneapolis spring wheat gained 73 percent year-on-year and KCBT hard red winter wheat rose around 68 percent, while CBOT was up 54 percent as of Tuesday.
“Consumers don’t have much forward coverage, and when you look at available exportable surpluses around the world, we are running out in a number of major exporters,” said London-based Rabobank analyst Luke Chandler.
Most of the buyers of quality wheat, mainly in nearby North Africa, turned to the EU in the first part of the season, draining the region’s silos at a high pace.
Europe is set to export 20 million tonnes of wheat this season, with France accounting for the bulk. The EU had granted export licences for 11.9 million tonnes by Jan. 11.
“European prices are bound to race higher to ration supplies,” a French trader said.
U.S. wheat exports, which are running far behind last year’s, were forecast to take over from Europe. The USDA last week raised its estimate for wheat exports this season by 50 million bushels to 1.3 billion, the highest since 1992/1993.
