Arab revolts stir passions in Chavez’s Venezuela

CARACAS, (Reuters) – Venezuela’s usually loquacious  leader Hugo Chavez has been uncharacteristically quiet on the  unfolding revolt in Libya against his close friend and ally  Muammar Gaddafi.

Usually quick to opine on any global crisis, Chavez has  Tweeted once but otherwise barely mentioned the uprising  against a man he in the past showered with gifts, awards and  garrulous praise as a fellow socialist revolutionary.

Some opponents see the Venezuelan president’s attitude as  evidence of nerves the wave of protests against authoritarian  rulers in North Africa and the Middle East could extend as far  as Latin America — and threaten his own 12-year rule.

Yet there is scant evidence on the ground of a nascent mass  resistance movement. On the contrary, the opposition is calmly  preparing for primaries at the end of the year ahead of a 2012  presidential election in the South American nation.

Chavez officials are not panicking, though they did move  with surprising pragmatism this week to negotiate with student  hunger-strikers and grant them concessions rather than let a  three-week protest snowball into anything bigger.

And though his ratings have been in decline, the OPEC  member’s economy is in serious straits, and opponents portray  him as increasingly dictatorial, Chavez remains Venezuela’s  single most popular politician by far.

“I do not see the crisis in the Middle East transferring to  Venezuela in the short-term. The conditions are not there at  the moment,” said Venezuelan analyst Diego Moya-Ocampos, of the  international think-tank IHS Global Insight.

Rather than a domino effect from the Arab unrest, next  year’s presidential vote looms as Venezuela’s potential  flashpoint, analysts and diplomats say.

If an increasingly confident opposition, which won half of  the popular vote in last year’s parliamentary poll, considers  it has been cheated, it could try to revive the kind of street  protests that helped produce a bloody 48-hour coup against  Chavez in 2002.

The trauma of 2002 left scars and lessons on all sides:  Chavez radicalized afterward and vowed never to expose himself  again like that, the opposition’s political immaturity was  revealed, and the military was shown to be the crucial factor  first in the president’s departure and then his return.

In another scenario, if Chavez loses the 2012 vote, he  might resist leaving power.

“I see the election as more of a threat to stability in  Venezuela than Libya and Egypt,” a Caracas-based diplomat said.  “But we have to be honest — all of us failed to predict the  fall of communism and now the fall of the Arab dictators, so we  are in the realm of the unpredictable here.”

“SHAMEFUL” FRIENDSHIP

Just as the West has faced a dilemma over the Middle East  — caught between support for the clamor for democracy on the  street and decades-old alliances with autocratic Arab leaders  for the sake of stability — so does Chavez face a paradox.

The 56-year-old ex-soldier, who led a failed coup attempt  before winning power at the ballot box in 1998, has cast  himself as a champion of popular movements but also a stalwart  friend of Arab leaders, especially Gaddafi.

Chavez actually broke his silence on Libya late on Thursday  with a brief message via Twitter, declaring: “Long live Libya  and its Independence! Gaddafi faces a civil war!!”

His foreign minister, Nicolas Maduro, also chose his words  carefully, calling for an end to violence and echoing an  accusation by Cuba’s Fidel Castro that the United States was  trying to create conditions to justify an invasion of Libya.

“The main objective of the Libyan invasion is the same Bush  had – oil. To take its oil, leave Libya in 20 pieces and  deprive OPEC of one of its main places,” he said, referring to  former U.S. leader George W. Bush’s war in Iraq.

Arab TV stations have reported rumours that Gaddafi and his  family could take asylum in Venezuela, prompting denials in  both countries but outraging Chavez opponents here who say his  friendship with the Libyan is an international embarrassment.

“It’s shameful for Venezuela that he holds the sword and  order of our ‘Liberator’,” opposition newspaper TalCual said in  an editorial on Friday, referring to Chavez’s gift to Gaddafi  of a replica of independence hero Simon Bolivar’s sword.

“It’s a dishonour to us that Venezuela’s name is tainted  abroad by being named as his natural place of refuge.”

Footage of Chavez’s presentation of the sword to Gaddafi in  2009 is flying round opposition cyber-circles in a bid to make  the Venezuelan squirm and taint him by association.

Although Chavez shows plenty of authoritarian traits, from  endless daily speeches and legal pursuits of opponents to  surprise nationalizations announced live on TV and a one-man  style of leadership, more direct comparisons with the Arab  strongmen may be a push, analysts say.

He has, after all, won about a dozen elections in Venezuela  and still commands way more support than any of his would-be  rivals at next year’s election. Supporters argue Venezuela’s  revolution already came when Chavez took office in 1990 and  swept away an old elite that cared nothing about the poor.

Venezuelans on all sides are fanatic users of social media,  with no overt government moves against Internet access despite  opposition claims that the government has Cuban advisers  showing it how to cut off or restrict the Internet if and when  needed.

If Middle East events are obviously awkward for Chavez,  there is one reason for him to smile — the price of oil.

With Venezuela’s economy wholly dependent on crude exports,  and struggling despite the pre-unrest spike in prices, the  latest hike above $100 a barrel could help ensure at least a  small recovery after two years of recession.

It will also bolster Chavez’s election war-chest.

Royal Bank of Scotland analysts Siobhan Morden and Raza  Agha said higher oil revenues would provide a “near-term  buffer” for Chavez. “This could actually reduce the political  risk with more revenues available for social-oriented transfers  and spending,” they said in a report.

“While the domino continues in the Middle East with social  unrest unraveling autocratic regimes, there are yet no signs of  contagion to Venezuela.”