This must be the most extraordinary campaign season ever in this country. While presidential candidates from two of the parliamentary parties have now been identified, the oldest party in the nation has still not selected the man (it is most unlikely that it will be a woman) who will lead it to the polls. And these are mere months away, unless by some misadventure we were to be overtaken by a currently inconceivable sequence of events. The fourth parliamentary party – GAP/ROAR – is poised on the verge of extinction because ROAR has melted away, although the GAP half of the combination is still alive and is a member of the Joint Opposition Political Parties. These include the WPA, PNCR and National Front Alliance, which are negotiating a coalition for the election.
Certainly the ‘town hall’ meetings of the PNCR prior to their election to choose a presidential candidate appeared to energize the party’s base, although whether that will be reflected in voter turn-out at the general election remains to be seen. Congress Place cannot afford to have a repetition of what happened in 2006, when so many members of its traditional constituency did not go out and vote. Furthermore, Mr David Granger, who won the ‘primary’ election, did not do so by an overwhelming majority; in fact the final result was very close, so prima facie, at least, he might need to work if he wants to carry a unified party to the polls.
Certainly, the party has never been in a situation before where the presidential candidate and the leader were not one and the same person, and there are therefore no protocols in place to cater for the new arrangements. Exactly how the modalities of what theoretically could be a tricky relationship are to be negotiated, remains to be seen. It has the potential, if nothing else, for disharmony, which in the event that it did occur, would hardly be helpful to the campaign. As can be seen from our story in yesterday’s issue for example, Mr Corbin and Mr Granger may not be quite at one on the subject of leading alliances with other parties, although without the AFC which had much earlier declared it would not ally with the PNC, it is difficult to see what other small parties can contribute to any coalition in terms of constituencies.
If things are not altogether completely transparent at the Sophia end of the city, they are positively opaque at the Robb Street end. The small window of opportunity for the President to secure a third term has almost certainly closed with the election of a PNCR presidential candidate, since any such project would have required the cooperation of Mr Corbin and a limited number of his MPs to make possible a constitutional amendment to term limits. In addition, now that the processes have been set in motion for the selection of a PPP candidate, any kind of manipulation to secure a term extension would also seem unlikely. Once the decision is made and a name is announced, we could be fairly certain that we would be entering the final months of Mr Jagdeo’s presidency.
What is at issue at the moment, however, is who the candidate might be. Up until our report about a possible new nominee last week, the two front-runners in the race were Messrs Ralph Ramkarran and Donald Ramotar, with Ms Gail Teixeira and Mr Clement Rohee as the outsiders and Mr Moses Nagamootoo effectively out of the running because of his objections to a process which he regards as undemocratic. Mr Ramotar in more recent times was seen as having the head of state’s backing, since he went on cabinet outreaches, and was included in delegations for some presidential overseas trips.
Although he never made any public pronouncements on the matter, the President conveyed his preference in a more subtle way as well: he expressed himself in favour of the Central Committee electing the candidate by a show of hands. This method is widely perceived to favour Mr Ramotar – or any other aspirant whom Mr Jagdeo might now support – since some electors could feel inhibited about publicly indicating a choice which might not reflect the President’s expectations. Mr Ramkarran is supporting the use of the secret ballot, not only because it is standard democratic practice and militates against intimidation, but also because it is the norm in the party when there is more than one candidate standing for election. One presumes too, he considers his chances would improve if the poll were a secret one.
That a new dimension could be introduced was made clear when on Thursday we carried a report saying that Mr Robert Persaud was likely to be a late entrant to the race. When asked by this newspaper if he would accept the nomination, Mr Persaud declined to give a direct response, although he did say he would issue a statement on the matter. Up to the time of writing, the statement had not materialized. Many moons ago, before all the whispers about a third term or an extended current term had begun to find ready ears, the general assumption was that Mr Persaud would be favoured by the President for the candidacy. He had not declared his interest when the other nominees came forward, however, so it was therefore presumed he would not be in the running.
Outside the charmed inner circle of the PPP, no one is quite sure how it will affect the vote if Mr Persaud does indeed enter the contest. The aspirant most likely to find himself at a disadvantage would be Mr Ramotar, since the general belief is that in this new scenario the President would throw the weight of his prestige and influence behind Mr Persaud. Whether there are those on the Central Committee who would be more disposed to vote for Mr Persaud than Mr Ramotar, and therefore Mr Ramkarran – the other front runner – would lose out as well, is not a matter that anyone can gauge at this stage. There is always the possibility, of course, that Mr Persaud has gone into the race with the aim of securing a profile high enough to assure him of a promise of the prime ministership. That would seem unnecessarily complicated, however; why go for the lesser post if there is any hope of securing the prize – although it could very well be a fall-back position if the prize is not won.
The absence of a ruling party presidential candidate has affected all the other parties, especially the AFC, because the PPP is the one in government whose record is under scrutiny. Given the long-standing antagonism between the two old warhorse parties, it is easier for the PNC to campaign against the PPP as an entity than it is for the AFC, which finds itself in something of a campaign vacuum. Personalities have always been a major factor in politics in this country, and a system with an executive presidency inevitably puts particular emphasis on the person leading a party into an election. The AFC says it wants to move away from personality politics to issues, but where the election per se is concerned, the current system makes that difficult. In any case, the psychology of voters is such that most of them do not vote for abstractions; they want to compare candidates, and if there is no PPP candidate, some of them will suspend their judgement in the interim. The AFC after all, will have to seek some of its votes from the PPP constituency this time around, since they can have no guarantee that if the PNC revives at any level, it can attract the number of defectors it did on the last occasion.
The only non-parliamentary candidate who has declared himself at this stage is Mr Peter Ramsaroop, but since he has no constituency to speak of, he will probably find he has little more than hope to sustain him.
