Hopes that the presidential and parliamentary elections in the Federal Republic of Nigeria would have passed off relatively peacefully, were dashed almost immediately after the announcement of the results in favour of incumbent President Goodluck Jonathan of the People’s Democratic Party (PDP). And now, there must be some trepidation over the results of the elections (to be held after this editorial goes to press) for the state governorships; though the cut of the ethnic lines in the country would suggest that the majorities in these elections will go according to ethnic majorities in the various states. President Jonathan must, however, have been hoping that having been Vice President in the PDP administration of deceased President Yar Adua, and then having served some time as President over the last year following the death of the President, that there would have been greater acceptability of himself in the northern states of the country, especially as the PDP was a party representing a multi-ethnic grouping across the country, and has had a policy of rotation of the Presidency between north and south.
That there was almost instantaneous, violent opposition to his election, suggests that ethnic divisions still strongly fuel potential instability in the political system. And in that context, efforts will continue to have to be made by the President, to ensure appropriate representation of ethnicities in the new government, to the extent that this is feasible.
No doubt, too, there will have been the hope, particularly from the incumbent party’s side, that what would seem to have been a relatively successful avoidance by the Nigerian federal administration of too deep a reflection there of the global recession, would not only have encouraged the chances of re-election of President Jonathan, but would also have encouraged widespread acceptability of it by the Northerners. And indeed, Jonathan won nearly 60% of the votes cast to 32% gained by his opponent, the former military President of the Federation, General Buhari. But on the other hand, the results have shown that the PDP failed to gain majorities in any of the most northern of the 36 states of the Federation; though likewise, his opponent similarly only got 25 percent of the votes in the southernmost states. In that context, Buhari has played to the demonstrating crowds in the north, failing to initially call strongly for a halt to the violence initiated by those presumed to be his supporters.
The PDP had emphasized that under its administration, and given the more recent resumption of high oil prices, there had been relatively low inflation and a reasonable level of economic growth. In February of this year, the leadership of the Central Bank of Nigeria had announced that the economic growth rate had attained a level of just over eight percent in the last quarter of 2010, and attributed this not only to the resumption of the upward trend of oil prices, but also to an improved performance of the agricultural sector. But in the eyes of the Northerners, they themselves have not been substantial recipients of these improvements; and there remains the perception among the northerners, in spite of similar protests from minority tribes in the Niger Delta, that the southerners are really the major beneficiaries of the oil wealth of the country. The discrepancy in levels of living between north and south is indeed wide.
There will be relief that the armed forces acted decisively to quell the outbreaks of violence. The situation will have been helped by the fact that although General Buhari indicated his opposition to the conduct of the election, and its outcome, he declined to actually support the rioting and would appear not to be inclined to formally join those wanting to legally contest the result. General Buhari, as himself a previous President, will undoubtedly be aware of the dangers of fanning the flames of ethnic protests too strongly, the army of which he had once been a member having been too extensively involved in coup creation in the country. He, as other Nigerian leaders, will be well aware too, that the present economic circumstances favour continuing growth for the country, and that in addition, any tendencies to ethnic strife can well inhibit Nigeria from playing a substantial role in the stabilization of West Africa as a whole (the country’s status permitted the government to credibly threaten intervention in the recent events in Ivory Coast). And finally, General Buhari will be aware that the Commonwealth Secretariat Electoral Observer Mission, headed by the former Botswana President Festus Mogae, has given the conduct of the election a nod of approval, even as they have indicated particular discrepancies.
President Jonathan’s new government will continue to be preoccupied by the issue of claimed inequities in the distribution of the country’s wealth. In his own area of southern Nigeria, he will be having to ensure that the present limited peace in the Niger Delta in respect of oil production is a fragile one. He himself does not come from one of the major tribes of the country, and will have a sensitivity to such concerns. But on the other hand he is well aware that there is strong concern over the extent of corruption which exists in the process of governance of the country – his own governing party was well oiled with financial resources for the elections – and a growing sense in Nigeria that this situation is much too much to the detriment of the general population of the country.
