Despite the avalanche of bad news for President Barack Obama, he remains the most likely winner of the 2012 elections. That’s the conclusion I reached after watching the top Republican presidential hopefuls in recent weeks, as they started in earnest the race for their party’s nomination. They have taken such a hard line on issues that are dear to Latinos, that I don’t see how any of them can win the 40 per cent of the Hispanic vote that pollsters say Republicans will need to win the White House.
The last Republican president, George W Bush, got 40 per cent of the Hispanic vote in 2004, and the Latino vote has only become more important since. Former Republican candidate Sen John McCain — who ran as a moderate on immigration — lost the 2008 campaign in part because he got only 31 per cent of the Hispanic vote, pollsters say.
So the question today is, how will any of the current Republican hopefuls win a sizable part of the Hispanic vote, when they