DUBAI, (Reuters) – Saudi Arabia’s Crown Prince Sultan has died, the royal court said today, opening the way for Interior Minister and reputed conservative Prince Nayef to become the likely heir apparent of the world’s top oil exporter.
Prince Sultan, whose age was officially given as 80 and who died in New York of colon cancer early on Saturday Saudi time, had been a central figure in Saudi decision-making since becoming defence minister in 1962 and was made crown prince in 2005.
Saudi analysts predicted an orderly transition at a time when much of the rest of the Middle East is in turmoil as populations have risen up against their autocratic leaders.
Sultan’s health had declined in recent years and he spent long periods outside the kingdom for medical treatment. A 2009 U.S. diplomatic cable released by WikiLeaks described him as “to all intents and purposes incapacitated”.
The country’s ruler, King Abdullah, is now likely to summon an untested Allegiance Council of the ruling al-Saud family to approve his preferred heir.
Most analysts believe that is likely to be Prince Nayef, who was appointed second-deputy prime minister in 2009, a position usually given to the man who is third-in-line to rule.
“The succession will be orderly,” said Asaad al-Shamlan, a professor of political science in Riyadh. “The point of reference will be the ruling of the Allegiance Council. It seems to me most likely Nayef will be chosen. If he becomes crown prince, I don’t expect much immediate change.”
He has gained a reputation as more conservative than either King Abdullah or Prince Sultan, with a close relationship with the country’s powerful clergy. However, as king he might be more likely to follow to a moderate line in keeping with the al-Saud tradition of governing by consensus, say analysts.
King Abdullah set up the Allegiance Council in 2006 to make the family’s complex succession process more transparent. In the past, the succession was decided in secret by the king and a coterie of powerful princes, before being made public.
Under the new system, the 34 branches of the ruling family born to the kingdom’s founder King Abdulaziz Ibn Saud will each have a vote to confirm the king’s nominee for crown prince or appoint their own candidate.
Prince Nayef has been interior minister since 1975 and has managed the kingdom’s day-to-day affairs during absences of both the king and crown prince.