An inspiring campaign this is certainly not, although it is still most interesting. Charisma is in short supply – which is not necessarily a bad thing – and while Mr Nagamootoo certainly knows how to work up a crowd, some of the content of his speeches tilts heavily towards the ‘bottom house.’ As for President Jagdeo, his crass deliveries go beyond even bottom house norms, although at Stabroek Market on Friday his address (with one or two fleeting asides) came well within what is acceptable for the hustings. Perhaps it has begun to occur to Freedom House that ‘cuss downs’ in circumstances where the other presidential and prime ministerial candidates are operating in a fairly restrained manner may actually be counter-productive for the PPP/C campaign. People like to listen to the insults because of their entertainment value, but incessant verbal abuse is unlikely to persuade them that the party has anything meaningful to offer.
There have been disruptions of PPP/C meetings by APNU supporters, the most serious case allegedly being that of Victoria, although the facts of what happened there have been disputed by APNU. However, persons have come forward claiming assault, and the police are now investigating the matter. What is beyond dispute is that APNU supporters in some PNC heartland areas have been chanting and drowning out PPP/C speakers. Of course there is a tradition of heckling at political meetings in this country (and also, it might be mentioned, in the UK too), but there is a distinction between heckling and disruption. Politicians like Burnham relished the opportunity to give a heckler a witty riposte, and Jagan too was always prepared to interrupt a speech to answer a comment from the crowd. With one or two exceptions this current generation of politicians, however, is altogether less accommodating when members of the audience answer back.
Systematic chanting which continues during a speaker’s presentation, however, is of an altogether different character from heckling. Apart from preventing the speaker from being heard – a form of denial of freedom of expression on the campaign platform – in certain circumstances it can run out of control and lead to violence, which as mentioned above, may, it is alleged, have happened already. It was in recognition of this, no doubt, that APNU’s presidential and prime ministerial candidates when speaking at the launch of the party’s manifesto on Friday, urged their supporters not to disrupt PPP meetings and not to be violent. On the other side of the coin, the PPP would be well advised to abandon altogether what has effectively been some inciteful speech-making on the hustings; apart from all the obvious objections, it raises the temperature of the campaign, and invites retaliation.
Having said that, at least the campaign in general appears to have energized the electorate somewhat, and there is considerable interest in what is happening on the political front. Exactly how this will translate into votes on November 28 is not something which can be easily predicted. However, the PPP/C itself has indicated on the platform that it is not altogether confident it will secure an overall majority. Both in Anna Regina and at Stewartville the supporters were exhorted to exercise their franchise so that the party would not lose control of Parliament.
While the feel of the campaign is altogether different from any of those since 1992, it is still hard to read with any certainty. Traditionally, Guyanese elections have always been mostly about ethnic arithmetic, but exactly what that is this time around has been a subject of debate. The electoral roll is certainly smaller than it was in 2006, possibly largely because of migration, although some of those on the register the last time will have died. Whatever the case, no one can be too sure about the ethnic breakdown of the Official List of Electors, although it has been made public that 46% of voters fall between the ages of 18 and 35.
In addition to that, it should be mentioned that as of October 15 this year, 43,424 voters had not even uplifted their ID cards, which they are required to present at the polling stations before they will be allowed to cast their ballots. It is also a matter for speculation as to how many persons who qualified in terms of age, did not bother to register at all; one must assume that whatever their number, in their case, they have very little interest in the election. Since the turn-out in 2006 was just under 69%, a very low figure for Guyana, the assumption has been that there was great voter apathy. Of course, it is difficult to know what percentage is accounted for by that, and what percentage could be laid at the door of migration.
The matter of an apathetic and/or a discontented support base is of greatest concern to the PPP/C, and as mentioned above, they have already made public their anxiety that they might fail to secure an overall majority if all their people do not turn out. Since they may not be too certain about the size of their traditional ethnic base any longer, they cannot afford any defections or abstentions there. Apathy and/or refusal to vote on election day on any scale in their heartland will present them with a real challenge. As it is, they require the assistance of the Amerindian vote to carry them over the 50% mark, but that result is premised on their customary constituency voting solidly for them. Some of their constituents probably did not choose to vote in 2006, but it had no effect because far more PNCR electors either stayed home or defected to the AFC than did theirs. This time, there is more dissatisfaction among their own supporters than there was then, added to which, they must be nervous that Mr Nagamootoo, one of their former stalwarts, is now campaigning for the AFC and may attract some of their voters.
The ruling party has worked very hard in the hinterland regions expending state resources to ensure it secures the Amerindian vote. It is not, of course, a monolithic constituency, and compared to the coastland areas, the numbers are minuscule. The two most populous regions are One and Nine; while the first of these arguably may be fairly secure, the situation in Region Nine is far from clear with its various party allegiances and the split in the TUF. Region Seven is a major mining region, and while not very populous, the PPP/C still cannot afford to ignore it in their current situation. Their problem will be the possible alienation of the mining constituency over the new regulations, and while they have won over Mr McWilfred, the former representative of the small and medium miners, that may not be enough to assuage the latter.
Whether the two opposition parties will benefit from the possible travails of the ruling party is yet to be seen. It appears that the traditional PNC constituency is responding to APNU, although whether all of the members will in fact vote or are registered to vote is yet to be revealed. In addition, how many other votes the party can attract from outside that base is not something anyone knows either. The AFC owed their seats in the last Parliament mostly to breakaway votes from the PNCR, and no one can say whether those voters will return to APNU, or whether some of them, at least, will stay. This time the AFC has campaigned heavily in traditional PPP areas, and only after the votes are counted will anyone know for certain how successful they have been in their efforts.
What can be said with some confidence is that never in the history of free and fair elections in this country, has an election had so many imponderables, giving the pundits space for genuine speculation. It still remains to be seen, however, whether this indeed will prove to be the last of the ethnic censuses.