Furthermore, contrary to what everyone thought on Monday when voters went to the polls, the turn-out was surprisingly low for this country – up a little from the 68.82 % of 2006, but still only 72.9%. And in further bad news for Freedom House, relatively speaking, more electors in their heartland failed to put in an appearance at the polling booth, than did those of APNU. This is the reverse of what happened in 2006, when twice the number of PNC voters did not exercise their franchise, than did their PPP counterparts. In terms of the general picture, on an electoral register which only listed 475,496 eligible voters, a total of 346,717 actually voted, although a small proportion of those ballots – 4,481– were spoiled. In 2006, the PPP/C secured 183,867 votes in total, and this time around that figure had declined to 166,340. Conversely, APNU secured 139,678 votes in 2011, up from the PNCR’s 114,608 in 2006.
Some of the regional tallies tell a revealing story. APNU’s vote increased to 84,828 in Region 4 following this election, as opposed to the PNCR total of 68,112 in 2006. Since the small parties in the APNU alliance really bring no constituencies with them, this is almost certainly the PNC’s traditional supporters returning to the fold. A number of them had marked their ‘X’ next to the AFC five years ago, and their reversion to their old allegiance is apparent from the latter party’s decline in its share of the vote in this region – around 3,200. For its part, the PPP lost only about 1,500 odd votes in this electoral district as compared to the previous election, possibly a reflection of all the new housing schemes which accommodate so many of their supporters now. The same might apply to Region 3, where they also did not sustain as large a decline as in some other regions.
The real revelation for the governing party, however, comes in its traditional territory of Region 6 and to a lesser extent, Region 5. In 2006, they recorded 42, 248 votes (even that figure was down about 5,000 or so from 2001), and in 2011 they received 32,360. Some of the damage was clearly due to the AFC, which received 11,634 ballots this time, over against 3,091 in the previous election. There is a similar, if far less dramatic story in Region 5, where in this poll the PPP/C obtained 13, 558 votes, 2,346 fewer than in the previous election. For its part, the AFC improved its showing in the region by almost the same amount – just over 2,200.
In terms of its overall seats the AFC gained two extra ones (seven now and five before), only this time with the support of quite different electors from the previous occasion. The combination of Messrs Khemraj Ramjattan and Moses Nagamootoo clearly had an impact in the areas where the PPP base is concentrated, particularly on the Corentyne, but the AFC also became the largest party in Region 8, possibly because Ms Garrido-Lowe was on the ticket. It could well be that the party attracted some votes which would normally go to the TUF, which for the first time since it was formed, will not be represented in the National Assembly and has to all intents and purposes been eliminated as a national political entity, although it still has a regional presence. The split in the party prior to the election, with Ms Garrido-Lowe’s unceremonious eviction from the leadership, as well possibly as the TUF’s long collaboration with the PPP, seem not to have gone down well with its small support base.
Considering all the state largesse the previous government had been throwing around in indigenous areas, the turn-out was not impressive, particularly in Region 1, into which the PPP/C put so much effort. While registered voters there numbered 9,738, only 5351 actually bothered to cast their ballots. All parties experienced a drop in support in this district, as reflected in the results. There were similar low turnouts in Regions 7 and 8, although the terrain might have affected this, while in Region 9 too, only 7,450 electors put in an appearance in the polling booth, out of a possible 10,204. The low Amerindian turnout too would have had its impact on the overall PPP total.
Be that as it may, if any party is responsible for the PPP/C not securing a parliamentary majority, it is the AFC. Had it joined with APNU, as some in the latter grouping wanted, the outcome of the election might have been quite different. The PPP, at least, understood the potential danger the AFC represented to them long before the election, and concentrated their attacks on the party and its leadership at an early stage.
As for APNU, whose electoral base was only galvanized in the latter part of the campaign, it has made a significant recovery from 2006. It is true that the party’s disastrous showing in that poll was laid at the feet of Leader Robert Corbin, who was not popular among significant segments of the PNC. This time of course, he was sidelined, but even then the campaign never seemed to take off the ground in the initial stages, with the ex-military men in charge appearing to lack the political know-how, dexterity and speed which the circumstances required.
It is the ultimate irony, that meetings and rallies acquired a buzz only latterly, after Dr Rupert Roopnaraine went on the hustings as the acknowledged prime ministerial candidate of the grouping. His humorous speeches brought out the base in Buxton, Plaisance, Linden and Square of the Revolution, and the crowds waited in anticipation for his recitations and jokes. His only possible competitor on the platform sans the humour, was Moses Nagamootoo of the AFC, some portions of whose deliveries were hardly elevating in their tone. As it is, APNU has obtained the kind of result which it hasn’t seen in half a century, which opens up all manner of political possibilities to work in the interest of its constituency and the nation as a whole.
Of all the parties which have some serious post mortem work to do, however, the PPP/C stands out. If their Campaign Manager Robert Persaud is to be believed, they do not appear to have made a very promising start. He recognized that many of the party’s supporters did not choose to vote, concerning which there is no argument, and he put this down to “apathy,” which he equated with complacency. Leaving aside the issue that the two things are not the same, he appeared reluctant to entertain any possibility that there was disillusionment about the party’s performance among the traditional base.
Perhaps it is the case that privately, within the walls of Freedom House party stalwarts were admitting something which they will not say publicly, but if not, at the very least they need their workers to go out into the field and get feedback about what the base really thinks. It must be something of a shock for them after mounting the most expensive campaign in the history of this country, assiduously excluding the opposition from access to the state media and splashing state resources around with total abandon, they still did not achieve an overall majority. In contrast, APNU had very few resources, yet attracted back many of its old voters. There is a lesson in there somewhere for the PPP.
It is true, of course, that despite all the millions of dollars they spent, they ran a very poor campaign. It was admittedly hard considering they had been in government for so long, but they did not come up with any innovative approaches to win over even their own electorate. They had no really good speakers; Mr Ramotar cannot electrify anyone, which might not matter in other circumstances, but when their supporters are turned off it becomes critical, more especially since he was not that well known. The main speaker on the hustings was often Mr Jagdeo, who with his vituperative style probably did more harm to his protégé than good. The party ended up having to bus people to its rallies – the worst-kept secret in the country, and something which may have back-fired on them in the end, suggesting as it did that their support had diminished. Even the dancing girls and the musicians on the PPP platform were not enough to entice all their supporters into the ballot booth.
What the election does show, is that while the AFC has made some breaches in the ethnic fortresses, the solid core of electors from the two major parties who cast their ballots still gravitated towards the party associated with their own group. However, the results do suggest considerable voter apathy and/or disaffection across the board, and that is something which all parties, and not just the PPP/C must investigate. In the case of APNU, the rallies and turnout can be viewed as an expression of opposition to the PPP/C, but even in their case there were clearly voters who just stayed home for whatever reason. And as for the PPP/C, the figures do not lie, and contrary to what Mr Robert Persaud seems to think, no elector owes any party a vote. They are no longer in the majority, and after a period of soul-searching, they should adjust themselves to that reality and make the accommodations which reflect it.
