Indications by the new Governments of St Lucia and Jamaica that efforts will be made to have their countries join the Caribbean Court of Justice (CCJ) will have once again raised popular hopes that our governments are willing to implement the commitments that they make – even if belatedly. The Jamaica decision, announced by Prime Minister Portia Simpson Miller at her recent swearing-in, seems also to have at least the preliminary support of the Opposition, a good omen given the recent general elections, and the historic hostility of the Jamaica Labour Party to joining the CCJ. Prime Minister Kenny Anthony of St Lucia, a constitutional lawyer, will be aware that his country’s decision has, in effect, to be a collective decision of the OECS countries. But there would appear to be some indications that a certain realism is dawning on those countries about British intentions in respect of their future progress, given in particular the abruptness and determination of the latter’s’ decision to implement an Air Passenger Duty which, it is widely believed, puts these islands as tourist destinations at a distinct disadvantage. And the same consideration might well apply to Jamaica.
Indeed a renewed awareness of the harshness of the external environment might well be the determining element in Caricom countries’ decisions this year about the fate of our integration movement, as the major countries of the globe find themselves struggling to come to terms with severe economic difficulties.
From a Caribbean perspective, even with some signs of the beginnings of an American economic upsurge signalled by increasing employment over the last two quarters, there must be deep worry about the willingness of Americans and Europeans to splurge on vacations in our countries, among others. And at the wider global level, there must be some concern at the slow tip-toeing of China and the US towards a rationalization of their trade and financial relations with which the US is clearly dissatisfied.
There must also be some trepidation about the continued volatility in countries of the Middle East, with the persistent rattling of sabres between the United States and Iran as the Nato powers seek to extend the geographical and economic breadth of the embargo against Iran’s alleged devotion to building a nuclear capability. Syria, though not a major oil producer has the potential for another invitation of external powers into a region now wracked by domestic instability, an event that local American allies like Saudi Arabia are doing their best to inhibit. And finally, nearer home, the tenseness of relations between the US and Venezuela, emphasized by the expulsion this week of the Venezuelan Consul-general in Miami over allegations of her discussions about cyber attacks on the US, will continue this year in the context of Venezuelan presidential elections due in October. It is in this week too, that President Chávez will be reiterating his support for the Iranian government with a visit from President Ahmadinejad to Caracas, a reflection of Chávez’s determination to demonstrate to the Americans that they can impose no limitations on his country’s international relations.
The continued US-Venezuelan verbal and diplomatic hostilities will be of prime concern to our larger Latin American neighbours, including Brazil pursuing an independent diplomacy since the presidency of President Lula. Their priority is placing emphasis on a closer consolidation of relations among the major Latin American powers, and seeking at the present time, along with the current government of Colombia, to minimize the possibilities of a flaring up of hostilities between the US and Venezuela. But the Venezuelan-US issue will, or at least it should, also be of concern to Caricom. This is so not only because of the significance of PetroCaribe for many of our states – and the possibility that an increase in hostilities could put Caricom in a position of being leaned upon by the US to take a stance against their current benefactor. It is also because of the obvious fact that many Caricom governments will have an interest in seeing a relatively smooth election process in Venezuela over the course of this year, unhindered by external pressures. They will hope that it will sustain Chávez in office, or not put them in a position of having to demonstrate support for one side in a contest heavily influenced by the interests of the United States. And even Caricom states not committed to PetroCaribe will be fearful of the consequences of major US-Venezuela tension when linked to Middle Eastern factors, for the price of oil.
Part of Caricom’s diplomacy over the last few years, and particularly last year, has been to strengthen relations with Latin America, including through the most recent Latin American initiative of a Community of Latin American and Caribbean States, which might be considered a successor to Caricom’s earlier initiative of the now somewhat comatose Association of Caribbean States (though that institution excluded Brazil, a neighbour of Guyana and Suriname). In recent years, Guyana in particular has demonstrated a determination to find ways to what the Latin Americans now refer to as “infrastructural integration” – a mode of enhancing economic spaces among countries that can allow the economic scale that can assure international competitiveness. Caricom and Cariforum states, well aware of the possibilities for Cuba’s re-entry into the globalised production and trading environment, and no doubt, within that, into increasingly coherent relations with the United States economy, will be pondering the possibilities of this for their own competitive exports, including that of tourism. How Caricom, and the wider Cariforum with the Dominican Republic increasingly insisting on its entitlement to participation in Caribbean-wide initiatives, can come to terms with these new directions, must in our view, be a focus of this year’s regional deliberations, in the context of how they can affect the regional integration movement and what needs to be done – including diplomatic initiatives – to facilitate our coming to practical conclusions.
At his David Thompson Memorial Lecture in October of last year, Dominica Prime Minister Roosevelt Skerrit observed that the Caricom Single Development Vision “is our blueprint for the future.” This document, prepared under the supervision of Professor Norman Girvan, and approved by the heads in 2007, was meant to enhance the advancement of the Single Market and Economy approved by the heads in 2007, and indicated a recognition of the deficiencies of appropriate scale, and the policies priorities required for effective collective economic activity in the region. But it seems to have been laid to rest. Skerrit went on to remark that “Since the Grand Anse Declaration of 1989, the challenges to our viability as nations and as a region have been multiplied several fold,” alluding to the disintegration of our ecosystems in the face of climate change, to increasing national and regional insecurity due to an increase in crime and violence, and to the threat of the increasing prevalence of communicable and non-communicable diseases.
To these can be added the severe threat to regional air transportation as LIAT faces major challenges, and a decreasing number of state shareholders, while hope is placed, as so often in the past, in external investors looking for steady profits on the basis of the region’s tourism reputation – but who now remembers Eastern Caribbean Express, Stanford’s Caribbean Star and all the others? Will the recent suggestions of Trinidad & Tobago for a greater focus, at least in the southern and eastern Caribbean, on sea transportation, be seriously pursued?
These perspectives seem to have been forgotten in the face of the indication from our heads at their famous Guyana Retreat of last year that, as Secretary General Irwin LaRocque put it, “they agreed it would be prudent to consolidate the gains made thus far on the CSME before taking any further action on certain specific elements of the Single Economy such as the single currency or monetary union.” We still do not know what other elements they had in mind.
In speaking at what was his inaugural presentation to his staff, the Secretary General seemed to suggest that the heads’ conclusion is all that the traffic can bear as far as the economics of integration is concerned. We look at his own suggestions, as the new kid on the top of the block, as to what the traffic can indeed bear, in a subsequent editorial.
