Fork in the Road
The elections of 2011 have brought Guyanese to yet another juncture of history along the path of nationhood. The electorate spoke eloquently and clearly on November 28, 2011 and constructed a divided government with power being shared between the Executive and Legislative branches. Whether that was the intention or not, the country is where it is at this moment in history. The country has come upon a fork in the road and must choose between the path of change for the better and the road of ignominy along which it travelled in recent years. The decision rests with both the Executive and Legislative branches of government. The responsibility to propose and execute programmes is the burden of the Executive branch while the responsibility to oversee and legislate is the burden of the Legislative branch of government. With the Opposition in control of the latter branch of government, the burden common to both sides is ensuring that the social, political, economic and civil interests of Guyanese are fully met. The creation of jobs for Guyanese, the adequacy and readiness of the workforce, the availability of effective incentives for investment and responsible exploitation of resources, good governance and the protection of the human and civil rights are among the priorities of Guyanese. No one would be watching more closely than the young Guyanese. They have come of age and have come alive, and expect their interests to be fully accommodated going forward.
ECONOMICS AND FINANCE
LUCAS STOCK INDEX (LSI)
WEEK 4 JANUARY 2012
Political Privilege
The role of the Opposition, though always clearly defined, was never that easy to discharge since all decision-making power was concentrated previously in the hands of the Executive. Now the story is different and the Executive and the Legislature must each act with an eye to obtaining the support of the other in the management of the affairs of the nation. The new political privilege seems almost like a divine intervention to bring Guyana out of the dark age of social and economic oppression into the era of social and economic enlightenment. There is an opportunity to fashion effective business incentives, develop and attract good quality skills and elevate the integrity and accountability of public institutions. Whichever side can do so while bringing young Guyanese along was likely to have the best chance at the next elections.
Abnormal Profits
This opportunity presents itself at a time when gold glitters and stands out among the dull elements and characteristics of the Guyana economy. Revenue from gold has consistently asserted itself over sugar, rice and bauxite as the main source of export earnings. In 2011, these revenues are set to expand somewhere between 40 and 50 percent over 2010 numbers, and place the industry head and shoulders above the rest. It was likely to account for over 40 percent of export income and 84 percent of the revenue generated by the mining industry. The returns from gold exports have put an enormous amount of resources at the disposal of the Executive with the Bank of Guyana reporting reserves of US$756 million at the end of September last year. The resources are ripe for abuse if the Opposition is not careful and astute in its oversight role. The main assumption being made here is that the Opposition will take its job seriously and do it effectively. There should be no doubt on the part of the electorate that that is happening, especially among the young and the restless.
Risks
Helped largely in part by the uncertain global economic situation, triggered by a financial calamity and prolonged by a seemingly interminable European debt crisis, gold has asserted itself as the magnate of economic opportunity and wealth creation in Guyana. The declaration of gold in 2011 has reportedly surpassed the declaration level achieved in 2010 by more than 13 percent. The risks in the industry are great with opportunistic predators preying on the weak and vulnerable. The risks are expected to increase with prey and predator alike being lured into the forested canopy of opportunity created by the high global prices for the commodity and the rich social and financial rewards that follows its disposal.
Intemperate and Injudicious
Despite the dangers, the expansion trend being witnessed in the mining area is expected to continue. The gold industry has also attracted several foreign investors seeking to capitalize on the abnormal profits currently available to the sector. This gilt-edged lining of economic promise has emerged over a nation long trapped in a state of underdevelopment by the will of nature, the foibles of history and the antipathy of its leaders. Under the new terms of political engagement, the countervailing parties have a chance to blow the trap door open and release the economic potential of the country for the benefit of a long suffering citizenry. The Opposition has the privilege and power to speak for the majority of Guyanese as a result of the electoral re-jiggering of power. But even as the two sides are settling into their roles, the jockeying for political advantage has begun and feelings of discomfort and distrust have already broken free with intemperate public policy and injudicious personnel decisions on display.
Introverts
The trouble with these decisions, including those that target political dissidents, is that they have real consequences for real people far beyond the political targets. Families are left short of a breadwinner not because of incapacity or an inability to work, but because of an abuse of political power that denies them work. Beyond that, when reason and fairness are cast aside, public confidence is deflated and those who have the best to offer the nation become public policy introverts to guarantee themselves a safe path forward. When that happens, the quality of life is undermined and Guyanese are denied access to the best outcomes as talented minds refuse to get into the game of development. Instead, they prefer to watch from the safety of the sidelines as mediocrity fumbles away the economic future of others. Public contracts are replete with examples of substandard outcomes that should never have been, the Amaila Falls road project being the latest such example. And risks of this type are still there.
The Will
As many Guyanese would have heard from parental counsel over the years, where there is a will there is a way. The way forward might not be clear right now, but if leaders could summon the will, a clear way forward could be found. So, as the country’s leaders stand at the fork in the road, they must decide what is best for the country. It is either a new path of positive change or the old path of disrepute.
