Farmers should expect a relatively normal to a dry July and a generally dry second half of 2012, according to an advisory from the Ministry of Agriculture last evening.
The Agriculture Ministry, in a release, said that the advisory is meant for farmers mainly, but it is also significant for the sugar industry.
Rice farmers, cash crop farmers and cattle farmers also should note this advisory and plan their activities accordingly.
The Ministry of Agriculture’s Hydrometeorological Service, the release said, is continuing its monitoring of weather conditions in Guyana and is looking at possible weather scenarios for the upcoming period.
The Hydrometeorological Services have examined the global models, which indicate the emergence of El Nino (dry) conditions by the end of summer.
This would also indicate that Guyana should expect normal to below rainfall in the coming months, while July is expected to be near normal in terms of rainfall.
The long term average for July shows that normally there are about 23 days of some rain in Guyana and approximately a total of 306.2mm (12.05 inches) of rain in July. The rainfall outlook for July shows that there is a 55% chance that rainfall amounts will be near this range, a 38% chance that the rainfall amount will be below this range and approximately a 9% chance that rainfall amounts will exceed this range.
The probability of lower than normal amount of rainfall will continue to rise with each month and this probability should dominate for the period September to February.
Irrigation Concerns
This weather outlook has implications for farmers and for farming in Guyana and yesterday Minister of Agriculture Dr Leslie Ramsammy held a special meeting with relevant technical officers in the Ministry of Agriculture. Over the next week, he will be holding special sessions with these officers and with relevant personnel in the regions, particularly in farming areas.
Moreover, the minister will be including officers from GuySuCo, the Guyana Rice Development Board, the Rice Producers Association, Fishermen Associations, cash crop farmers and cattle farmers to ensure everyone is prepared to successfully farm in dry conditions.
Unlike the period December 2011 to May 2012, when periods of above normal rainfall dominated weather conditions in Guyana and when the major concern was flooding, farmers will be concerned about availability of irrigation water.
This concern has already been expressed by some farmers who have started the second crop of rice cultivation.
However, the Ministry of Agriculture does not envisage major problems for farmers accessing irrigation water. All irrigation pumps are in working condition and they are being monitored for maintenance and availability of fuel. All irrigation canals are being monitored also to ensure they are clean and that water flow through these canals is maintained unimpeded.
The release noted, however, that there are some problems that will be encountered over time. Some of these are already causing conflicts among farmers – for example there are situations where cash crop farmers have been cultivating on dams along irrigation canals and have, in the process, lowered the levels of dams and in these instances water will overflow and destroy these crops.
Examples of these problems have already been encountered in Region 3.
“We are working with these farmers to provide protection, but we will not always be in a position to save these crops. We, unfortunately, must maintain high water levels within the canals to ensure adequate flow along the canals to provide access to water for all farmers,” the Ramsammy was quoted as saying.
In some instances farmers have placed tubes along the dams to drain water from their cultivation areas during rainy periods.
“Unfortunately, as we deliberately raise water levels in the irrigation canals, these tubes will represent a conduit for water to now flood the cultivation areas where cash crop farmers have inserted these tubes. Such tubes should have been inserted with doors to allow outflows from the fields, but prevent inflow into the fields. Some of these problems have already been encountered in certain areas,” he stated.
In the meantime, the Ministry of Agriculture is appealing to farmers to cooperate.
The weather condition expected for the next several months should provide ideal conditions for farmers but there can be situations which could create some conflicts and affect production.
The Ministry of Agriculture assured that it will try to mediate these conflicts and to facilitate better conditions for farmers.
Ramsammy said further that the first half of the year was a relatively successful one for agriculture. “We had difficult weather conditions, but our production showed a successful first half. Weather affected sugar production and shortened our first crop, leading to a below the target performance. But we should more than make up for this with the weather prediction in the period from now to December.
“Rice faced major challenges from the weather, but the production by June 29th was more than 206,000 tons of rice, with still some farmers reaping. Thus far, we exported 141,450 tons of rice with a value of more than $US83M. Similarly, we have increased production of various cash crops, particularly those that have become export products,” he said.
