Dear Editor,
Guyanese Americans have to be applauded for the interest shown in the just concluded Republican Convention, and I hope the same will be displayed this coming week during the Democratic convention, deepening the group’s interest and involvement in American politics. The Republican National Convention giving the stamp of approval to the presidential and vice-presidential nominees attracted much attention among Guyanese Americans and other minorities.
As an observer and political analyst, the level of interest shown (watching it on TV during prime time) by Guyanese Americans and other ethnic minorities was shocking, as most Guyanese tend to be Democrats. They talked about the convention, the candidates and the possible outcome of the November contest between the Republican Mitt Romney and Democrat Barack Obama. From their conversations, a lot more Guyanese support Obama than Romney, but their conversations reveal they are unsure who will prevail in the Fall.
Several who voted for John McCain four years ago now back Obama, because they are worried about Romney’s Social Security policy, while many who voted Obama last time are now staying home disappointed at obamanomics, which they feel has failed America leading to high unemployment, increasing poverty and declining home values.
I was surprised to hear one Guyanese, a leading activist, tell me he was heading to Tampa for the Republican convention. I subsequently learned other Guyanese also attended the convention. Several Guyanese have been chosen by the two parties to attend their conventions – Democrats in Charlotte, NC. This attendance and interest will help Guyanese to be informed when they vote. Many Guyanese Democrats may have been disappointed in President Obama’s policy on several issues, such as his educational policy, which is seen as a continuation of Bush’s failed policy. In addition, the President disappointed young people when he failed to keep a campaign promise to increase funding for public education and soft school loans.
Opinions on the candidates will change as a result of the conventions. The parties hold conventions with the expectation of getting a bounce for their candidate in opinion polls.
And Guyanese, like others, may change their vote. Sure enough with all the media attention this week, the Republican Party is expected to get a bounce in support only to be neutralized next week after the Democrats hold their convention.
I expect opinion polls to shift by weekend. So far, opinion polls (dozens of them) show a close contest between Romney and Obama.
The race is a dead heat, although more analysts feel Obama will prevail and an assessment of all the polls show Obama ahead.
However, a social and economic predictive model conducted by two University of Colorado professors shows a victory for Romney. This model has never been wrong since it first began forecasting elections in 1980. In 2008, the Colorado professors’ model showed a lopsided victory for Obama, although analysts felt the election would be much closer than the model predicted. Obama trounced John McCain 52% to 46% in popular votes but won a landslide in electoral votes.
The Colorado professors are predicting a similar outcome for Romney this time around. I think the election will be much closer as indeed is being shown by all opinion polls except the Colorado model.
I don’t think an Obama victory can be ruled out, especially as the election is two months away.
However, what is surprising is the number of (young) people who have turned against Obama and the Democrats and plan to sit out the election, thereby boosting Romney’s chances.
In terms of electoral votes, polls have Obama way ahead, although he has not sealed the deal as yet.
The Colorado model shows a very different picture than what current polling data suggests – 320 to 218 electoral votes with Romney winning all close state contests. But the Huffington Post analysis of many polls shows Obama with 257 electoral votes to Romney’s 191 (270 needed for victory) with only six “tossup” states deciding the outcome: Colorado, Florida, Iowa, North Carolina, Ohio and Virginia.
According to the Huffington analysis, Obama needs to win only one of the six states, while Romney needs to win all of them to win the presidency.
I think the election will remain close till the end, swinging back and forth.
Yours faithfully,
Vishnu Bisram
