Dear Editor,
I agree with Dr Joey Jagan that ‘President Barack Obama will win in November’ (SN, Sep 12) but for different reasons than those he offered (although I don’t disagree with his reasons). People are not pleased with Obama (his approval rating is around 42%) but his policy proposals seem better than Romney’s. In short, Obama is the lesser of the two … which is how an increasing number of people rationalize how they vote these days all over the globe.
Since the Republican and Democratic Conventions over the last two weeks, opinion polls put Obama ahead. The Republican Mitt Romney had a slight bounce after the Republican Convention but this was wiped out by the gains made by the Democrats after former President Bill Clinton endorsed and defended Obama in a superb speech delivered at the Convention.
If the election were held now, I think Obama would win by a landslide, because virtually all the polls (dozens of them) have him ahead. This is contrary to a statistical social and economic study conducted by two professors (who have accurately predicted all elections since 1980) who predict a landslide Romney victory.
The outcome of the election will be decided in the so-called swing or battleground states in all of which Obama is ahead. The closely fought states are Nevada, Colorado, Iowa, Wisconsin, Ohio, Virginia, New Hampshire, and Florida. Obama won all of them in 2008. Romney will have to win seven of them to get to the White House and that is a tall order. Obama needs to get two, and the White House is his. I felt Romney had a chance in Michigan and Pennsylvania, but it looks like his campaign has given up these two states to Obama.
It does not appear that Paul Ryan (Wisconsin) has brought much traction to Romney as he is struggling in Ryan’s home state. Ryan is not attracting enough independents, as voters think he is too far to the right. And Romney is way behind in his own home states of Michigan and Massachusetts (where he served as Governor). Romney would have improved his chances of winning the presidency had he selected a moderate like Tim Pawlenty as his Vice President. This would have put Minnesota in play and improved the Republican chances in Pennsylvania and Michigan.
For Romney to improve his chance of capturing the White House, he has to move to the centre (with attractive policies on Social Security, taxes, health care, education, etc) which candidates normally do after their conventions. Romney has not done so as yet, and in fact he appears to have moved further right. This will alienate moderate independents whom Romney needs in order to have a chance of winning.
Romney also needs to win over significant minority votes (Hispanics, Indian Americans, and Asians). So far he is getting only about 25% of the non-Black minority votes. He needs to capture a minimum of 40% and he can only do so with attractive proposals on immigration where Obama has upended him.
Romney also needs to come out on the side of public education and propose an increase in aid for students from low income families, as well as guarantee low cost student loans. This would turn some youths in his favour in battleground states.
Overall, it does not look good for Romney, as the electoral map is not in his favour and right now the stars are favouring Obama for re-election.
Yours faithfully,
Vishnu Bisram
