Dear Editor,
There has been much talk by American media commentators and even Guyanese Americans, many of whom surprisingly have been following the election, that a tied election is possible. I think a tied election is highly improbable though not impossible. If anything, a Romney upset victory is possible given his rising poll numbers in all the states and nationally over the last month. A tied election has never been experienced in the US but it happened before that a candidate did not win a majority of the electoral votes (EVs). If there were to be a tie or neither candidate wins a majority of EVs, the election is turned over to Congress. According to the US constitution, the House elects the President based on one vote per state as determined by a majority of its House delegation (26 needed to win). The Senate elects the Vice President based on the majority votes of the 100 Senators. With 33 states delegation comprising of a Republican majority, Romney will be chosen President and with Democrats outnumbering Republicans 53-47, Biden will be chosen as V.P. But I don’t see that scenario. I think one candidate will win a clear majority of EVs although it is possible he may not get a majority of popular votes.
So the US President is not chosen by the most popular votes, as is the case in Guyana, but by a minimum of 270 EVs. A state has a number of EVs equivalent to its Congressional representation. California has the largest bloc of EVs of 55 with Alaska and Wyoming having the smallest of three EVs. New York and Florida where most Guyanese and Caribbean people are settled have 29 EVs each. When a candidate wins a plurality of the popular vote in a state, he gets all of its EVs except one state (SD) with 3 EVs that distributes them by proportion of popular votes received. The EVs a candidate wins are added and if it totals 270 or more, the candidate wins the Presidency. It is conceivably possible that both candidates can get 269 but analytically, when I look at the polls, I am not seeing it though not ruling it out completely.
Opinion polls are pointing to a very close contest between the incumbent Democrat Barack Obama and the Republican challenger Mitt Romney. From my interviews, even partisan supporters of the two candidates admit the election is too close to call. The Caribbean Americans (including Guyanese) and other minorities I interviewed are overwhelmingly voting for Obama and they feel Obama will win comfortably in popular support as well as in electoral votes (EV). I also give the advantage to Obama. But if I were abetting man, I would put my money behind Romney to steal victory from the jaws of defeat – based on my readings of the current polls and comparing them with polls and actual results in 2008.
The race is a statistical tie nationally with some polls having Romney slightly ahead. But Obama leads in almost all battleground states or tied according to all of the polls. The bookies have a higher payout for a Romney victory than for an Obama victory suggesting they feel Obama will win. So if I were a betting person, I would go against the odds and put my money on Romney only because he is an underdog and I see an upward trend in his polls numbers from a month ago. Obama’s poll numbers have been going down while Romney’s has been steadily climbing – assuming the polls are right and for the most part American polls in recent elections have been on the money.
Over the last month, Romney has gained almost 5% while Obama has lost almost 5% in every state poll as well as nationally. If Romney continues this upward trend, he could win several battleground states enough to capture the 270 EVs needed for a victory. According to the Huffington Post, Obama leads 259 to 191 for Romney. Real Clear Politics has Obama 350 to 218 for Romney. AP GjF gives Obama 301 to 191 for Romney. These numbers are based on states that traditionally vote Republican or Democrat and from the latest polling data showing a candidate ahead or behind. I believe Romney will wrest Indiana from Obama who is not competing in the state. I believe the polls award states to Obama that I think Romney will win. I will not write off Romney in several traditional Republican states (NH, VA, NC, CO, IO,
IN) that voted Obama in 2008. If this were to happen, it will take Romney to around 238 and drop Obama to around 239. This means Obama needs 31 while Romney needs 32 to win.
I think the Obama people and analysts are not looking at the closeness of the contests in Minnesota and Michigan (two Democratic bastions) as well as Pennsylvania. Romney has ceded the states to Obama but polls show them close. Obama will win all three. This makes Florida (29), Ohio (18) and Wisconsin (10) very critical to both candidates. The analysts say no Republican has won the Presidency without Ohio. It is possible for Romney to make history without winning Ohio but he must win WI and another small state like Nevada (6) or New Mexico (5). I don’t think Romney can win NM which has a large concentration of minorities who are overwhelmingly voting Democrat. Ditto Nevada which has Romney trailing by only 2%. If Romney wins Ohio, it increases his prospect of winning the presidency and dooms Obama.
It is a closely fought election and it could go either way according to the opinion polls. Caribbean Americans could influence the outcome.
Besides the Presidency, there are also other important local and Congressional contests that will impact their lives. So I urge Guyanese to go out and vote and volunteer in the campaign as I have been doing for weeks. I volunteer with my Teachers Union (supporting Obama) because I am the leader in my school. Based on phone calls I made, there is a trend against Democrats in Florida and in N.Y but Obama will win NY and lose Florida. In a Richmond Hill State Senate contest, the phone calls suggest the Republican challenger will defeat the incumbent Democrat for the State Senate seat. But with so many voters displaced by Sandy, voters who said they would vote Republican, they may not make it to the polling stations and the Democrat can survive. How Sandy affects the outcome will be debated after the election and I don’t think they will be debating a tie.
Yours faithfully,
Vishnu Bisram
