Dear Editor,
Grenada goes to the polls tomorrow to choose a government. Elections were not constitutionally due until after July but elections are being held prematurely because of the collapse of the government resulting from defections within the ruling National Democratic Congress led by
Prime Minister Tillman Thomas. The party defeated the New National Party in July 2008 with an 11-4 victory. However, conflict within the NDC led to four MPs being expelled and rendering the NDC a minority government which prorogued parliament for six months before deciding to call early elections rather than face a no-confidence vote.
Two polls have the opposition NNP making a clean sweep in the elections with one poll by the Barbados-based Cadres led by Peter Wickham showing an eleven percent lead and another poll by Trinidadian Derek Ramsamooj a larger lead. Both were commissioned polls. A separate poll commissioned by the NDC shows it winning the election and the party feels confident of winning 12 seats. The NNP spokespersons say that they are seeing a 14-1 victory or a 15-0 sweep. Politicians everywhere like when paid pollsters tell them they are winning. Objectively speaking, the election is much closer than what both sides say and what their paid pollsters tell them. An independent poll by NACTA shows a much smaller lead by the NNP and tight contests in half of the seats. There are many silent voters and they could go for the NDC. There are also about 8% undecided voters.
All indications are the opposition NNP led by former Prime Minister Dr. Keith Mitchell will be returned to office come Tuesday evening. However, it is not impossible for the NDC to retain office given that eight seats are within the poll’s margin of error although such an outcome is highly unlikely given that there is a huge swing away from the NDC as the other polls also found.
According to the NACTA poll, the leader of the NDC Tillman Thomas is struggling to retain his seat trailing his opponent whereas the NNP leader Dr. Mitchell is leading by 75% to 17% over his opponent – a sign of trouble for NDC. Also, based on trends picked up by NACTA from Friday’s early voting of police officers, the NNP garnered at least four to one of the police votes. NACTA is also projecting government workers and teachers swinging towards the NNP. Neither Wickham nor Ramsamooj did an exit poll of voters.
Voters complain about slow growth in the economy and lack of jobs. They also say no party has shown a clear vision for the future. However, a majority of voters did say Mitchell is a better leader and was a better Prime Minister than Tillman Thomas. Apathy is running very high and turnout is expected to be less than the last time because many who voted NDC in 2008 are disappointed and plan to stay home enhancing the NNP’s chance of wresting power.
While showing a swing towards the NNP, NACTA finds the NDC in a good position to retain a few seats and a fighting chance in a few others where it trails the NNP by a few percentage points. The poll shows the NNP retaining its four seats and capturing at least one and ahead in three more. It also shows the NDC retaining three seats (with slight majorities) and marginally ahead in two more. Two seats are dead heats.
Altogether, some eleven seats are within the poll’s margin of error. This makes it difficult to give an exact count but Ramsamooj and Wickham determine a clean sweep with huge majorities in every seat.
Yours faithfully,
Vishnu Bisram