Introduction
This series of columns argue that Guyana will stay an underdeveloped country because the Constitution promotes competition for economic resources between the two main ethnic groups. In this competitive arrangement the East Indian elites associated with the PPP gain the greatest economic rewards. The media houses have reported several events where individuals connected to the PPP have expanded their economic stranglehold on the economy by gaining the rights for TV and radio, oil exploration, gold extraction, land ownership, hotel construction, broadband internet provision and government contracts. In return, the connected friends have in the past financed election campaigns and other events like a Presidential appreciation day. These individuals are now part of the Private Sector bodies, which ironically have remained quiet as state resources are used to compete against business owners not connected to the government.
Some of the resources expropriated from the people are redistributed to East Indian masses, African Guyanese masses and African Guyanese elites associated with the PNC in an effort to preserve the status quo. However, it is this very arrangement that guarantees unequal ethnic and class income growth; hence my argument that there cannot be economic development. For starters, projects like the Marriott and the airport terminal expansion will not propel the nation to a sustained growth path; instead they will add foreign currency debt without growth in incomes. With respect to the economic viability of the Marriott, Delta Airlines has already voted with its wings.
How do we escape from this terrible situation? There are possibly two options. First, electoral turnover in government under the present Constitution would allow for regular change in government. However, we noted in the previous column (March 6, 2013) that the very Constitution promotes a zero sum outcome. Therefore, African and East Indian masses are likely to vote strategically along ethnic lines on the day of voting because neither can be certain how the other will vote. Here we have the classic situation of what economists call a prisoner’s dilemma game in which there is always the worst outcome for the players involved. Nevertheless, this leaves the possibility for a third group of ethnicities to swing the election away from the PPP. However, there is still the risk that the Burnham Constitution would incentivize the new government to behave in an authoritarian manner.
Cooperation instead of Competition
The Constitution, therefore, has to be reformed significantly in order to change people’s perceptions, expectations and actions. If the present Burnham Constitution entrenches distrust and non-cooperation, then changing it to one that promotes cooperation is necessary. In other words, if non-cooperation gives us the bad outcome of uneven development, then cooperation in the same prisoner’s dilemma setup could result in the outcome of a more balanced development where all have equal access to opportunities, at least under the law and in the practice of the government.
It is for this reason I am not in agreement with the argument that because of the present fiasco in Parliament the politicians of this country can never work together. This argument does not take into consideration that a new constitution could be crafted to incentivize politicians to work together. Take for example the present situation in Parliament and at the Executive branch. The people have spoken against the PPP, which lost the majority in the last election. The opposition has expressed its distrust for Minister Rohee and has also voted against the exorbitant pension for former President Jagdeo.
However, President Ramotar is armed with the bastardized Burnham Constitution that avails him the power not to cooperate with the opposition. As a matter of fact, the President has little incentive for changing, except of course if polls continue to guide the PPP that the 51% is gone for the foreseeable future. In addition, Mr Ramotar cannot be impeached. In spite of the fact that he is coming from the base of 48.4% of the votes, he intends to use the Burnham Constitution to stonewall the opposition on both issues. To make matters worse, the PPP has decided it will play politics by allowing Mr Rohee to go to Parliament to promote superficial police reform, when he has refused to do so for many years. Moreover, the PPP has enormous economic incentives to maintain power at all cost in spite of not having the credibility of 51% of the votes.
It appears Freedom House made the calculation to allow Mr Rohee to promote watered-down security measures and police reforms that the opposition is likely to vote against. Voting down any security measure implies the opposition, specifically the AFC, is setting itself up to be blamed for crimes by the awesome propaganda machinery of the PPP, which extends to the Guyana Times and VCT. No doubt Freedom House has elections in sight. However, the demographics are changing and it is unlikely to win a 51% margin again. The point is the PPP prefers to compete to win everything for itself instead of pursuing cooperation.
Chinese Immigrants
As part of the strategy of non-cooperation, Mr Rohee recently resurrected the old bogeyman by blaming the opposition for several robberies committed against Chinese immigrants. This strategy has been used over the years by PPP party shills who often in secret or at bottom house meetings blame the PNC for crimes committed against East Indians. To this day not a single person from the PNC has ever been prosecuted or jailed. It is an insult to people’s intelligence for claiming the opposition is responsible for crimes and at the same time fail to bring anyone to justice.
It is an old tactic that is used to project fear in order to preserve the ethnic East Indian vote bank. I hope the Chinese government is taking note of this situation. Either Mr Rohee arrests these individuals in the opposition or he needs to apologize. Of course, I will not hold my breath. Perhaps one reason for the PPP to take this road is it has plans to register Chinese immigrants for the next election. This registration would be a welcome development since it is important to allow new immigrant groups to settle in Guyana.
The Chinese government, however, should warn the PPP that it must provide an immigration policy framework. Moreover, China’s own economic development model focused in the early stages on bringing in multinationals to employ poor workers and boost manufacturing. Like South Korea and other South East Asian economies, the Chinese model requires domestic content requirements. Therefore, the opposition did nothing wrong to demand that Guyanese workers also be employed in projects funded by loans from the Chinese government, and which will have to be repaid by all taxpayers. The Chinese government should make sure its people are not used as a pawn in the old ethnic struggle between East Indian and African Guyanese masses. The new hard working immigrants should not be used as a means for maintaining PPP East Indian elite hegemony.
Conclusion
This series of columns argued that the Burnham Constitution will guarantee unequal income growth and inequality along class and ethnic lines. Deep Constitutional reforms are needed to incentivize political leaders to cooperate. They will be incentivised to cooperate when those who lost the election understand that they still have the power to effect positive change. And those who win the election know that they are not under ulterior threats. Many Guyanese over the years have proposed various models for reform. Mr Ralph Ramkarran recently outlined several sensible benchmark reform steps, which are close to my own views of reforms that are needed. The AFC and PNC have publicly stated they would like to move in the direction of reform. The PPP should know it has more to gain from constitutional reform than to lose.
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