When –as appears likely, at least at this juncture – general elections are held in Zimbabwe later this year under a new constitution Robert Mugabe will, in all likelihood, be running for office as President of the Southern African country again. The one-time freedom fighter turned 89 in February, a juncture in most political leaders’ lives when the trappings of office and the addiction to power tend to evaporate in thick mist of physical and mental deterioration. That, it seems, is not the case with Mr. Mugabe; at least not yet. He soldiers on still, according to reports, still prepared to do what he feels he has to do to maintain his grip on power.
Zimbabwe may have had general elections in 2008 but the country does not even remotely resemble a conventional democracy. After the announced outcome of the elections had threatened to spark an outright civil war, a political compromise was reached that allowed for the appointment of Mugabe’s main political rival, Morgan Tsvangirai as Prime Minister. The two men, however, remain at daggers drawn with Tsvangirai having made more than one public claim about thugs aligned to Mugabe’s ZANU-PF Party attacking and beating his supporters and destroying property.
In March this year Robert Mugabe celebrated his thirty third year as ruler of Zimbabwe. He first took office on March 4 1980 as a revered leader of his country’s liberation struggle and has since been repeatedly returned to office. His current tenure in office is accounted for by the violent and disputed 2008 elections which terminated in a controversial runoff that put him back in power.
If Zimbabwe’s political culture as much as its economy had become jaded under Mr. Mugabe even before the turn of the century, it was the 2008 elections, more particularly the process, that attracted the full attention of the international community. If, hitherto, his earlier credentials as the leader of a liberation struggle may have caused him to retain a few loyal friends, after 2008 he became widely perceived as a man wholly preoccupied with staying in power.
On Monday, after Zimbabweans had voted for a new constitution that had to do mostly with limiting presidential powers and paving the way for a general election earlier this year, the European Union lifted economic sanctions against the country some of which had been in place since 2002. If the removal of the sanctions was intended as a gesture to a country whose economy had been crippled over the years, the EU simultaneously dropped a broad hint that Mr. Mugabe remained out of favour. Targeted sanctions including asset freezes and travel bans against 81 Zimbabwean officials and firms were dropped. Those against Mugabe and his wife remain in place.
In recent years Mr. Mugabe may have been spared the fullest attention of the international community by other more pressing global emergencies including the Arab Spring. The country may have dropped down the list of crises requiring immediate attention but, these days, Mr. Mugabe appears increasingly isolated. Now completely shorn of his status as the leader of one of Southern Africa’s great liberation struggles, he has been reduced to the level of a dictator in the eyes of many of his own people and much of the international community. What must be particularly galling for Zimbabwe’s ruling elite is the fact that other countries in Africa that have also gone the route of armed struggle – notably Zimbabwe’s old ally, South Africa – no longer appear to have an appetite for close relations with the Mugabe regime.
If the removal of the sanctions by the EU appears to signal a belief in sections of the international community that Zimbabwe may be on the road to some measure of normalization, that is tempered by the realization that Mr. Mugabe, even in his advanced years, remains ‘large and in charge’ and, moreover, that he has created a power structure that can keep ZANU-PF even if not its ageing leader in power for much longer. Worryingly, the Mugabe regime persists in its distaste for dissent, the coincidence of the recent referendum and the arrest of the human rights lawyer Beatrice Mtetwa sending a clear signal to those who might be anticipating the dawn of a new (democratic) day that Mr. Mugabe remains firmly entrenched.
After her release from jail Ms. Mtetwa ‘warned’ that her own arrest was an indication of things to come, that “there will be many more arrests to follow as we near elections.”
It is a chilling thought that Mr. Mugabe may seek to use the poll due to be held later this year to extend his grip on power since that could spark public protests that might quickly evolve into a popular uprising.
