It is perhaps a happy coincidence that following the success – both real and symbolic – of hosting last week’s second summit of the Community of Latin America and Caribbean States (CELAC), when Cuba effectively secured the unambiguous and unanimous endorsement of the path it is pursuing by all 33 independent states of Latin America and the Caribbean, ambassadors of the European Union (EU) should have reached consensus, this week, in Brussels, on a recommendation to the EU’s Council of Foreign Ministers, to approve, next Monday, the terms of a mandate to negotiate an association agreement with Cuba.
Notwithstanding the Castro regime’s unwillingness to allow multi-party elections and continued restrictions on free speech, Cuban diplomacy has been increasingly successful in breaking down barriers to its full reincorporation into the Latin America and Caribbean family of nations and to wider acceptance in the international community. Indeed, it would be reasonable to say that Cuba is no longer isolated as some would like it to be. If anything, it is the United States of America that is becoming more and more isolated because of its anachronistic Cuba policy, rooted in the Cold War, and its maintenance of an embargo that defies political and economic logic. Now, the EU, following an improvement in bilateral relations between some of its members and Cuba, no longer sees any reason to maintain an arm’s-length relationship.
The process of rapprochement has been ongoing for some time. In late 2012, the EU’s chief diplomat, Baroness Catherine Ashton, had been charged with exploring the possibilities for an agreement with Cuba, against the backdrop of the EU’s Common Position, adopted in 1996 at the behest of Spain’s conservative government, to make advances in democratisation and human rights in Cuba a condition for a closer relationship. To date, Cuba is the only Latin American country with which the EU has no sort of pact but both Havana and Brussels now appear ready to find a way forward.
The next step is for the EU’s Foreign Affairs Council to approve the recommendation on February 10. This is widely expected to happen, significantly, without debate, and Baroness Ashton and the European Commission will then have the green light to open negotiations with Havana. The big question, however, will be whether the EU privileges trade and economic considerations over democracy and human rights principles.
Despite the fears of human rights activists, the Common Position does not appear to be heading for the dustbin just yet, as technically, it will remain in force until a new, legally binding agreement is reached. No one expects the negotiations to be easy or quick, even as there is expected to be immense pressure on the European side to place human rights, environmental concerns, labour rights and private enterprise on the agenda. In this respect, one particular intriguing aspect of the process will be whether the new members of the expanded EU, themselves former communist states, bring the convert’s zeal to the negotiating table.
By banking on the prospect of an economic turnaround in Cuba – one in which they can play a facilitating role – the Europeans are obviously positioning themselves to benefit from the eventual opening up of the Cuban economy. Moreover, unlike the Americans, they clearly see the benefits of bringing Cuba in from the cold and view engagement as a means of influencing change there.
The optimistic outlook would be that, as President Raúl Castro manages the process of incremental structural transformation he has begun, time and changing circumstances would allow him to consider some degree of corresponding political adjustment. In effect, he may have no choice, if he truly intends to modernise Cuba’s ailing economy. For an association agreement with the EU could help to make Cuba a more active and competitive participant in the global economy and that dynamic would itself bring about change.a
