By Timothy Austin
With the Winter Olympics over, our television viewing attention now turns to another race for gold, the 2014 Oscars. Surprisingly, this year offers nominees that are Box-office hits and not the usual obscure December films that no one really saw but earned the admiration of the Academy.
Nominees like Gravity, American Hustle and the epic slavery saga 12 Years a Slave have dedicated fans hoping that their favourite film wins Best Picture on Sunday. So what’s your best bet for Oscar gold? Here are predictions for the major categories:
Actor in a Supporting Role
This is the easiest category to predict. The Academy often rewards actors who change their appearance for a role, most times favouring the most drastic alteration. Remember Charlize Theron in Monster and Hilary Swank’s ‘masculine’ performance in Boys Don’t Cry? Yep, they both won.So will Jared Leto for his startling change into a drag queen dying of AIDS in Dallas Buyers Club. Leto was remarkable; completely unrecognisable and seemed entirely immersed in his role to the point you completely forget you are watching a man in female attire. Leto’s biggest competition comes from Barkhad Abdi as a brutal pirate in Captain Phillips, however even Abdi’s terrifying performance and the now famous line ‘I am the captain now’ cannot extinguish the ground breaking work of Leto in a performance people will be talking about for years.
Who will win: Jared Leto
Who should win: Jared Leto
Actress in a Supporting Role
Unlike supporting actor, this Oscar category is tough to predict as there is no clear favourite to win. My favourite is newcomer Lupita Nyong’o who has certainly racked up the most press coverage for her stunning fashion sense. Her role in the masterful 12 Years a Slave is startling to watch as she endures tremendous cruelty throughout the film. Her appearance is also striking as she seems emaciated and careworn in contrast to her regal red carpet appearances. No doubt the Academy has noticed her incredible ability to transform and this may more than likely bring her Oscar gold. However, she faces tremendous competition from last year’s Best Actress winner Jennifer Lawrence for her sultry role in American Hustle as well as Julia Roberts who delivered a powerful performance opposite Meryl Streep in August: Osage County.
Who will win: Jennifer Lawrence
Who should win: Lupita Nyong’o
Music Original Score
This category focuses on what the average movie goer would call the soundtrack or background music. Most viewers simply gloss over this category but make no mistake some of the greatest films ever made were successful because of their film score/soundtrack. What would Jaws be without John Williams’ memorable theme? Would Titanic still be memorable without James Horner’s sweeping music for the famous ‘bow scene’? This year offers less than memorable movie music including Gravity, Her, Philomena, Saving Mr. Banks and The Book Thief. The most memorable nominee for moviegoers is Gravity with the film ending with powerful drum-heavy orchestral music; however the other nominees have failed to establish any real popularity with the average moviegoer and one has to question the failure of the Academy to nominate the chart topping music from Disney’s animated film Frozen. While the title song “Let it Go” easily earned a nomination, some in part to its humongous popularity, the orchestral music by veteran film composer Christophe Beck failed to be nominated. Even Hans Zimmer’s music from Best Picture nominee and favourite to win 12 Years a Slave failed to receive a nomination despite high sales of the soundtrack. Without a clear popular nominee my money is on five-time Oscar winner John Williams for his moving score for the little known film The Book Thief. Beyond this, your guess is as good as mine.
Who will win: John Williams
Who should win: Christophe Beck (Although he was snubbed for a nomination)
Best Actress in a Leading Role
A few months ago I would have definitely predicted Meryl Streep as the clear winner for Leading Actress for her tour de force performance in August: Osage County as Julia Roberts’ monstrous mother. Then I saw Cate Blanchett in Blue Jasmine and it was a revelation. I have been a fan of Blanchett since her role in the popular Lord of the Rings films; however I never expected such an exemplary performance as the one I saw in Blue Jasmine. Blanchett is mesmerizing as a middle-aged woman having a nervous breakdown as her world falls apart following her husband’s arrest for embezzlement. No one should miss this performance as it exemplifies the highest achievement of an actress. Blanchett is completely absorbed in her role and there are moments when you watch her in awe thinking that in the hands of a lesser actress the role would not have been as effective. Make no mistake, despite stiff competition from Streep, Blanchett will win another Oscar.
Who will win: Cate Blanchett
Who should win: Cate Blanchett
Original Song
Surprisingly, the Song category is the most controversial this year. A nominee, who just happens to sit on the Academy’s music branch, was accused of illegally promoting his song “Alone Yet Not Alone” to Oscar judges via an email. Following the revelation, the Academy dropped the song as a nominee leaving only four nominated songs. Many see this as a scandal as the song comes from a movie that few would have seen much less listened to the title song. Blatant exclusions include “Young and Beautiful” from The Great Gatsby which undoubtedly was one of the most popular movie songs from 2013. Scandal aside, fans of Disney’s blockbuster Frozen are hoping that “Let it Go” performed by Broadway veteran Idina Menzel wins the coveted prize. Type covers of “Let it Go” in Google and you will receive over 1 billion results as the song has become a cultural phenomenon. Not since Celine Dion’s Titanic ballad has a movie song captured the attention of the world as the soundtrack has topped the Billboard 200 chart and the song continues to climb the iTunes charts. However, “Let it Go” faces significant competition from Pharrel Williams’ “Happy” from Despicable Me 2 which is close to becoming as popular as the National Anthem. “Ordinary Love” by U2 for Mandela: Long walk to Freedom also benefits from sentiment and has won the Golden Globe for Best Song. Oscar voters almost always get this category wrong and the most popular song hardly wins, hence the favourite “Let it Go” may lose to the sentimental U2 ballad.
Who will win: “Ordinary Love” by U2 from Mandela: Long Walk to Freedom
Who should win: “Let it Go” from Frozen
Best Actor
This is the tightest race of 2014 with two outstanding nominees with equally brilliant performances going head to head. Leonardo DiCaprio is a favourite to win for his scandalous turn as a Wall Street tycoon who indulges in extreme spending, drugs and women in The Wolf of Wall Street. DiCaprio is notorious for being locked out by the Academy despite the diverse roles he has played since his star turning moment in Titanic, so most fans are hoping for a long awaited Oscar win. However, like co-star Jared Leto in Dallas Buyer’s Club Matthew McConaughey transformed himself through severe dieting to play a man dying of AIDS who goes in search of medication for the terminal disease. McConaughey’s startling emaciated appearance received significant press coverage even before the film premiered and since the Academy never fails to award actors who drastically change their appearance for a role, DiCaprio is out of luck again.
Who will win: Matthew McConaughey
Who should win: Leonardo DiCaprio
Best Picture
Despite 9 nominees there is no real competition for Best Picture as 12 Years a Slave has won every other major award including the Golden Globe. This is the sort of sweeping, epic, historic drama that the Academy enjoys and has rewarded in the past. The new take on the traditional slave story has won over many critics and the film has the large ensemble cast including a bearded and aged Brad Pitt that the Academy admires. Lead actor Chiwetel Ejiofor, despite not being a front runner for Lead Actor, provided an astonishing performance well supported by Lupita Nyong’o. The film provides an ideal package that the Academy cannot ignore.
What will win: 12 Years a Slave
What should win: 12 years a Slave
