2013 Facts
● Growth in real GDP of 5.2% compared to a target of 5.3% and actual rate of 4.8% in 2012. Non-sugar GDP grew by 6.3%.
● Overall balance of payments deficit of US$119.5 million compared with a surplus of US$32.9 million in 2012.
● The 91-day Treasury bill rate remained constant at 1.45%.
● Inflation rate of 0.9% compared with a target of 4.3% and actual rate of 3.5% in 2012.
● Depreciation of the Guyana dollar to the US dollar by 0.86%. Average market mid-rates for US$ depreciated by 0.85% with the Pound Sterling and Euro depreciating by 2.77% and 4.99% respectively, to December 2013. The market mid-rate for the Canadian dollar appreciated by 2.35%.
● Current Revenue of $136.5 billion compared with $130.2 billion in 2012, an increase of 4.8% and a shortfall of $26.3 billion or 16.1% from budgeted.
● A 5% salary increase to all public servants and members of the disciplined services.
● Introduction of a national minimum wage of $35,000 per month.
● Reduction of the personal income tax rate from 33⅓%% to 30%.
● Exports and imports contracted by 2.8% to US$1.4 billion and 7.5% to US$1.8 billion respectively.
● Current account deficit of US$425.3 million (2012: US$366.7 million); and net inflows on the capital account of US$314.8 million (2012: US$418.3 million). Overall fiscal deficit of $27 billion compared to $27.6 billion in 2012 and budgeted amount of $29.1 billion.
● Total external reserves at year end for Bank of Guyana of US$776.9 million, a fall from US$862.2 million in 2012.
Size of the Budget: $220Bn, 25.1% increase
2014 Targets
● Inflation rate of 5%.
● Growth in Real GDP of 5.6%, with the non-sugar economy growing by 5.2%.
● Balance of payments overall deficit of US$21.9 million.
● Capital account to register a surplus of US$426.2 million.
● Current revenue of $168.2 billion, an increase of 23.2%, including GRIF inflows of $18.6 billion.
● Overall fiscal deficit of the Central Government at $32.4 billion, 4.9% of GDP in 2014.
● Overall deficit of the non-financial public sector at $34.6 billion or 5.2% of GDP.
● Overall deficit of financial operations from $31.6 billion to $37.5 billion.
● Capital expenditure to increase by 61.9% to $81.2 billion.
● Value added and excise taxes of $65.8 billion, an increase of 6.7%. Customs and trade taxes of $13.7 billion expanding by 3.9%.
Ram & McRae’s Comments
1. Growth at the half-year stage was 3.9% while the inflation at the same stage was 0.2%.
2 any members of the public and the Parliamentary opposition are not convinced about the utilisation of $4,403 million under Revision of wages and salaries which the equivalent of approximately 15%.
3. The National Minimum has attracted interest and resistance with some employers flouting the regulations.
4. The rise in projected inflation rate from under 1% to 5% has not been explained.
5. The policy of debt financing continues although the national debt is not unsustainable.
