The United Kingdom of Great Britain and Northern Ireland faces a new D-Day in six days’ time which, although expected to be peaceful, could potentially bring about far-reaching and largely unpredictable change. We refer, of course, to the UK’s greatest constitutional crisis for 300 years in the form of the Scottish independence referendum on September 18, with the latest polls showing the result too close to call.
Indeed, a poll released on September 7 showed just enough majority support (51%) for the ‘yes’ vote, confirming the trend in recent weeks, which has seen the ‘no’ campaign losing ground. Unsurprisingly, the political temperature in the UK has risen. Where there might previously have been a certain degree of complacency that most Scots would be too sensible to opt for independence over the benefits of a strong union, with the possibility of greater devolution of powers to the Scottish Parliament thrown in by Westminster, now there is something akin to the sort of panic in the English camp perhaps not seen since the Battle of Bannockburn.
On Wednesday, all three heads of the major British political parties, Conservative Prime Minister David Cameron, Liberal Democrat Deputy Prime Minister Nick Clegg and Labour leader Ed Milliband, travelled to Scotland to make separate, emotional appeals to voters to preserve the union. Mr Cameron, in particular, who had hitherto kept himself out of the fray, made an impassioned plea to the four million people who live and are registered to vote in Scotland, including those aged 16-17, not “to break up this family of nations.” But will it be a case of too little, too late?
Mr Cameron, of course, does not want to go down in history as the man who presided over the dissolution of the union, but he had deliberately refrained from visiting Scotland until this week so as not to antagonise voters and stir up old anti-English and anti-Tory (the Conservatives only won one Scottish seat at the last general election) sentiments. He had therefore left proposals for the granting of greater autonomy, including possibly new tax-raising powers for Scotland, to his finance minister, Chancellor of the Exchequer George Osborne. And both the Conservatives and the Liberal Democrats who comprise the UK’s coalition government had been content to let the Labour Party do most of the running in the ‘Better Together’ campaign, for if Scotland breaks away, Labour would lose its 40 Scottish constituencies and might not see a return to power in Westminster for many years to come.
But the prime responsibility for preserving the union has to be the government’s and, until this week, Mr Cameron had appeared to be too removed from the debate, seeming to underestimate the reach of Alex Salmond, First Minister of Scotland and leader of the Scottish National Party (SNP), who has waged a relentless – even if rather illogical to foreigner observers – campaign for independence.
Now, with the outcome in the balance, big business is worried, the financial markets are jittery and the pound has been falling. A ‘yes’ vote would almost certainly be a political disaster for the UK and lead to financial instability, if not economic turmoil, not to mention the bureaucratic confusion and the disruptive impact on citizens on both sides of the border in a host of practical matters for which there would be no easy form of resolution after centuries of integration.
It is ironic, moreover, that the SNP’s desire for independence mirrors somewhat the British government’s stance towards the European Union. The EU, however, still reeling from the global financial crisis, is nervous about the economic implications of the dismemberment of one of its more important members, as well as the threat of contagion in other members subject to separatist movements such as Spain, with its Catalan and Basque problems, and Belgium with its divisions between the French-speaking Walloons and the Dutch-speaking Flemish.
For our Caribbean Community too there is much food for thought. Despite the current faltering of the regional project, most people, if they are honest with themselves, would appreciate that the only real option in this globalised world for our small, mini and micro states is unity not division. Secessionist tendencies, whether in Nevis or Tobago, or bluster about ‘going it alone’ make no sense whatsoever. But it is the job of political leaders and central governments to be ever alert to historical grievances and popular discontent.
It says much for the UK that it can be so grown up on a matter so critical to its survival and that Scotland can vote on independence without recourse to violence. The Scottish example shows though that nothing can be taken for granted. People need to be reminded continually of the political, economic, social and cultural arguments in support of unity over fragmentation and of equitable development for all.
