Dear Editor,
Following a meeting between AFC and APNU officials on Oct 1, the AFC announced that APNU had reiterated its commitment to supporting the AFC’s no-confidence (NC) motion. Of course, that has always been APNU’s position. I was surprised and puzzled though, by the AFC’s revelation that no discussions were underway regarding a pre-election coalition. After all, the AFC has said that it wants a change of government, and a merger is clearly the easiest way to achieve that.
Editor, there is no realistic possibility of the AFC winning a plurality, so we can dismiss that notion right off the bat. The AFC has said that the goal of the NC motion is the unseating of the PPP/C. But this can only be achieved in one of two ways: either the APNU must win a plurality in a three-way contest, or the AFC and APNU must form a pre-election coalition. There is no other way.
For the purposes of analysis, let us consider the results of the last election. In 2011, the AFC got 35,406 votes; APNU garnered 139,645 votes; and the PPP/C obtained the plurality with 166,235 votes. Based on those numbers alone, if the AFC had joined APNU prior to the 2011 election, the PPP/C would have lost by over 8,000 votes, and Guyanese would probably be better off now.
Naysayers have suggested that traditional PPP supporters who switched allegiance to the AFC – particularly East Indian Guyanese – would have abandoned the AFC, if it had merged with APNU. But Editor, that argument does not hold up under scrutiny. Indo-Guyanese have been suffering under the PPP/C just as much as everyone else; Piracy, kidnapping, suicide, robbery, neglect of the sugar and rice industries, flooding, crime and poverty are all problems faced by Guyanese. And some of those issues are particularly relevant to many Indo-Guyanese. So, to think that Indo-Guyanese would have ignored their own interests is insulting, to say the least.
Unfortunately, we know that some persons vote along traditional lines. This is true for both larger parties. But, are we to believe that the AFC would have lost over 8,000 supporters as a result of a merger with APNU? Are AFC officials saying that they cannot sell their own party’s message? And now, does the AFC want to lead Guyanese into another three-way election, only to get the same result and saddle Guyanese with another five years of PPP/C mismanagement?
Editor, in any upcoming three-way contest, to unseat the PPP/C the APNU would have to pick up over 26,000 votes, over and above those obtained in 2011. And all the while, the AFC would be fighting the APNU for votes. The AFC cannot have it both ways; they cannot be sincerely desirous of unseating the PPP/C, while actively competing with the APNU. The only way to be sure of a PPP/C defeat is to facilitate or actively support an APNU victory.
In light of these facts, the AFC’s NC motion makes no sense in the context of a three-way race. I am therefore surprised that the AFC and APNU are not discussing a merger. I hope that the membership of the AFC are questioning leaders about this lack of strategic focus.
Editor, the APNU was founded on the philosophy of inclusion, and leaders have repeatedly said that the AFC is welcome to join. Therefore, it is up to the AFC to make a decision on whether or not to merge with APNU. If the AFC is sincere in its call for a change of government, the idea of a merger must be, at least, considered and discussed, since it is the only way to be certain of a PPP/C defeat. In the absence of such discussions, one is left to wonder about what the AFC is really trying to achieve with an NC motion.
Yours faithfully,
Mark DaCosta
