(Reuters) – Brazilians could make history this month by electing Marina Silva, the daughter of impoverished rubber tappers from the Amazon, as their first black president.
Yet Silva is trailing incumbent President Dilma Rousseff, who is white, among the half of voters who are of African descent.
That disadvantage, which contrasts with US President Barack Obama’s overwhelming support from African-Americans in the 2008 and 2012 elections, could cost Silva victory in this extremely close election.
The reasons behind Silva’s struggles speak volumes about Brazil’s history, its complex relationship with race, and the recent social progress that has made Rousseff a slight favourite to win a second term despite a stagnant economy.
In recent weeks, Reuters interviewed two dozen Brazilians of colour in three different cities. Many said they would be proud to see Silva win – especially in a country where people of colour have historically been underrepresented in government, universities and elsewhere.
Yet they also said they were more focused on the economy than any other factor. Since taking power in 2003, Rousseff’s leftist Workers’ Party has made enormous strides in reducing poverty – especially among blacks.
“No one wants to go back to the past,” said Gustavo Leira, 71, a retired public servant in Brasilia. Silva’s race is important, he said, “but it’s not the most important thing.”
Silva, who is running on a more centrist, market-friendly platform, has mostly avoided the subject of race, reflecting a long tradition in Brazilian politics and society. Brazilians overwhelmingly shy away from speaking about race, preferring to speak in terms of class instead.
Over the centuries, more than 10 times as many African slaves were brought to Brazil than to the United States. Brazil was the last country in the Americas to abolish the practice, in 1888. Today, blacks are more than three times as likely as whites to suffer from extreme poverty.
Asked in an interview with Reuters last week what it would mean to be Brazil’s first black president, Silva replied: “Not just (that) … I’d also be the first environmentalist.”
“I’m very proud of my identity as a black woman,” she continued. “But I don’t make political use of my faith, or my colour. I’m going to govern for blacks, whites, (Asians), believers, non-believers, independent of their colour or social conditions.”
‘Biggest mystery’
Silva’s stance is consistent with her especially inclusive brand of politics, which has brought together evangelical Christians, web-savvy urban youths, banking tycoons, and others.
But it has also mystified some political analysts and voters who say that, by not playing up her roots more, she is missing a golden opportunity to better connect with a huge demographic group that is mostly supporting her opponent.
A senior adviser to Rousseff called Silva’s reluctance to discuss her race “the biggest mystery of this campaign.”
Some, especially the young, are urging Silva to be more vocal about her background. They say that a dramatic rise in the enrolment of blacks at universities, thanks in part to new racial quotas, has fuelled a growing racial consciousness. Other prominent black leaders have also emerged, including former Supreme Court Chief Justice Joaquim Barbosa, who has urged Brazilians to speak more honestly about racial issues.
But change has been slow. Indeed, although most Brazilian pollsters ask respondents about their race and break down results accordingly, Rousseff’s lead among blacks has barely been commented upon in local media.
Regina Collson, a 23-year-old university student, said she has tried to convince classmates to vote for Silva by emphasizing how her African background, and her impoverished youth, would mark a “big change” from politics as usual.
“She would bring a different perspective,” Collson said. “But people aren’t talking about it (that way). It makes me mad.”
‘Poverty in brazil has a face’
Whatever tactical changes Silva makes from here on out could swing what is a very close election.
The first round of voting is today. Polls indicate that neither Rousseff nor Silva is likely to win a majority of votes.
That means the two would face each other in a runoff on Oct 26. Rousseff has built momentum recently, and polls have shown her ahead of Silva by about 4 percentage points in a second round.
In polls over the last two weeks, Rousseff has enjoyed a solid advantage over Silva of between 6 and 7 percentage points among voters who identify themselves as black or “pardo” – a Portuguese term for people of mixed race. Together, they make up a little more than half of Brazil’s population.
Among whites, who account for about 40 per cent of the electorate, the campaign has been more volatile. Silva enjoyed as much as an 8-percentage point advantage over Rousseff among whites in one poll and was statistically tied with her in another.
Asians, indigenous people and other groups make up the rest of voters.
In numerous TV ads, Rousseff has warned that voting for Silva could endanger the social gains of the last decade. Her party has also portrayed Silva’s advocacy of tighter fiscal policies and her friendship with Neca Setubal, a member of a prominent family of bankers, as a sign that she would govern on behalf of the rich.
Silva has denied that, pointing to her own socialist background and the fact she was herself a member of the Workers’ Party until 2009.
Meanwhile, Rousseff’s government has not shied away from describing its own achievements in racial terms.
“Poverty in Brazil has a face, and that face is black,” Tereza Campello, Brazil’s minister for social development and combating hunger, said in an interview.
She pointed to data showing that some 22 million people have been lifted out of extreme poverty over the past decade thanks to robust economic growth and social welfare programmes. Among them, 78 per cent were blacks or pardos.
“We have invested in this like no one else,” Campello said. “So people say: ‘My life has improved. Am I going to vote for the other candidate? Just because she’s black?’”
Such questions have led some Brazilians to compare Silva’s candidacy with Obama’s historic campaign.
In 2008, Obama won 95 per cent of the African-American vote. That advantage, plus his support from two-thirds of Hispanic voters, helped him overcome a 12 percentage point deficit among white voters. The margins were broadly similar when Obama won re-election in 2012.