All the signs presently are that the two main political parties in Trinidad & Tobago, the ruling People’s Partnership (PP) and the Peoples National Movement (PNM) have set their wheels in motion for the next general election in the country, now due at the latest, in May 2015.
At the last elections, held in May 2010, the PP, led by present (and first Trinidad female) Prime Minister Kamla Persad-Bissessar, defeated the PNM then led by then Prime Minister Patrick Manning by 29 to 12 of the 41 parliamentary seats, indicating that once the former United National Congress (UNC), previously led by Basdeo Panday, was able to amass the various opposition groupings, the PNM was no longer as invincible as it seemed.
Since the 2010 election, while there have been fissures on the PP side, and undoubtedly a weakening of the UNC’s coalition ally, the Congress of the People (COP), Prime Minister Bissessar has seemed able to hold the PP together, no doubt supported initially by a relatively healthy economy based on good oil prices.
On the PNM side, recent opinion polls show that leader Rowley who succeeded an ailing Patrick Manning, has largely been able to keep up with the level of the PP’s country-wide support. But from time to time, including at presentl, Manning has seemed to want to indicate, although he has clearly not reached the stage of doing what campaigning physically demands, that he wishes to influence the functioning of the PNM, almost to the extent that he seems to be contesting present political leader, Dr Keith Rowley’s very authority and legitimacy.
Supporters of the PNM are probably surprised at Mr Manning’s intervention, especially as Rowley was, as recently as May this year, confirmed as the party’s standing leader, and in recent months all the signs have been that preparations for the next elections have been intense. Some indications are that the former leader would like to have some input into candidature selections. And whether this present contention, essentially initiated by the still physically incapacitated Mr Manning, will drag out, is left to be seen. But it is unlikely that party supporters will be enamoured of the situation if it prolongs itself nearer and nearer to the statutory election date.
The temptation on the part of Mrs Persad-Bissessar to call an early election must be increasing as the PNM struggles to stabilize itself; and even more importantly, as the global economic situation, including in particular what appears to be a persistently descending oil price has the potential for diminishing the level of foreign reserves entering the country’s coffers, as well as possibly constricting the revenue available for a pre-election economic push.
In addition, indications are that in the context of the global economic situation, Trinidad & Tobago’s own economic growth rate is beginning to slip. Current data shows that in spite of projections of an expected 2.5% growth of the economy for 2014, this year’s figure is likely to be of the order of a half per cent, following rates of 1.5% in 2012 and 1.7% in 2013.
The Governor of the country’s central bank has indicated that there was a lowering of the growth rate in the energy sector, a sector which has also proven to be a source of much labour contention in recent times. He is, some feel, signalling that in these circumstances, government should be cautious in public expenditure even on the eve of elections, advice which is hardly likely to be too willingly accepted, especially in light of the fact that recent polls have been indicating support for the two main parties as virtually neck and neck. Time will tell, however, whether the government will stick to its own recent indication, which has pleased the Trinidad Manufactures’ Association, that it proposes to review public expenditure in the light of the oil price decline.
There are, of course, imponderables in the present political situation other than that of the price of petroleum. Public opinion seems to be increasingly concerned with the country’s crime situation, including what one observer, a leading attorney-at-law, has described as a situation of “murder with impunity.”
The country still appears to be shocked at the increasing appearance of Trinidad & Tobago as an active arena for the transshipment of drugs to the United States, as well as by an apparently unstoppable increasing rate of murder – a significant signal to the middle classes having been the gunning-down, in May of the noted female attorney Dana Seetahal, on one of the country’s main streets.
The Caricom region will be keen to see how the situation evolves. It seems to have been sometimes felt that Prime Minister Persad-Bissessar’s government has not had as activist an inclination to regionalism as was the case with the PNM regimes. But the response to this has tended to be that her government’s deeds are to be looked at, rather than her words, the implication being that in terms of finance Trinidad has not been hesitant in its generosity.
With just under six months to the elections, observers will be keen to see whether the present contentious situation at the top of the PNM dissipates, and if Dr Rowley is left to consolidate his position. While at the same time, all the signs are that the People’s Partnership campaign is going to be very aggressive, in spite of the fact that one of its most aggressive activists in the last campaign, Mr Jack Warner, is no longer part of its fold.
