The reality of an even more truncated lifespan for another minority government might be the incentive to propel the PPP in a different direction this time around and form a coalition government and former PPP stalwart Ralph Ramkarran has suggested that the opposition should insist on full inclusion and a rigid adherence to defined policies.
If the PPP/C is returned with only a plurality of the votes at the upcoming elections as in 2011, it could adopt the sensible course of inviting the opposition to join it in a coalition government, Ramkarran wrote in his Sunday Stabroek column. He said that further gridlock is unlikely to be sustainable for more than a year this time around.
He noted that the PPP would, like any other party obtaining a plurality, like to be in the majority in a coalition and may invite only one of the opposition parties to join a coalition. “The obvious consideration in opposition strategy, if an invitation is forthcoming, is to ensure that it will have the same majority as it would have had in opposition. To avoid being in a minority, the opposition party may well insist that the other opposition party, its colleague over the past three years, be also invited to join which would give the opposition a majority in the coalition,” he said.
“Having faced gridlock and frustration over the past three years, the political parties might all be looking to a new approach, difficult as this may be for the PPP. But the reality of an even more truncated lifespan for another minority government might be the incentive to propel the PPP in a different direction this time around. The PPP is then likely to have an opposition that may insist on both of them being part of the coalition arrangement,” Ramkarran said.
He stated that even with agreed policies, a party in a minority status in a coalition could succumb to the dynamics or blandishments of office, and agree or be forced to agree to the dilution or even derailment of its policies on constitutional reform, corruption, economic and social policy and good governance.
In this light, Ramkarran pointed to the position of the Liberals in the UK. He noted that the Liberals, in a minority, have been unable to promote their agenda, even some of those that were agreed upon, such as electoral reform, and have been unable to resist the more egregious Conserva-tive policies against the poor. As a result the Liberals’ support is likely to substantially decline at the elections in May. “The opposition will obviously want to avoid a similar fate in Guyana by insisting on full inclusion and a rigid adherence to defined policies,” he said.
The former Speaker of the National Assembly noted that minority governments by nature have a short lifespan. “Coalition governments are notoriously unstable. The main reasons are disputes over policy or where a member sees an advantage in early elections,” he noted.
“For this reason the opposition parties ought to have, before the elections, the basic policies that they would want all parties joining a coalition government to be committed to. This would require creative negotiation and compromises. Statesmanship, such as has never been seen before in Guyana, will have to be deployed,” Ramkarran observed.
“The most important would be economic policies. Issues that have attracted discussion include the failure to diversify the economy from reliance on only primary products without added value. There is little emphasis on the encouragement of manufacturing and services. Insufficient resources are directed to the building of the tourist industry which has much potential. In relation to infrastructure focus has shifted to the Amaila Hydropower Project and away from the road to Lethem and a deep water harbour. Both would be important,” he said.
Anti-corruption measures form a major plank of opposition demands but apart from the establishment of the Public Procurement Commission, no policies have been elaborated as to how the widespread corruption, including petty corruption, is going to be reduced, Ramkarran noted.
“Corruption includes massive tax evasion by large sectors of the population and large swaths of economic activity. Expanding the tax base is vital but little effort is made in this direction. The opposition also needs to consider how it will increase salaries, spend more on reducing crime, on reducing poverty and in particular extreme poverty while at the same time reducing VAT and other taxes. Social policy in relation crime including domestic violence, poverty, corruption, education, housing for the poor must be areas of agreement,” he said.
“The unfinished work of constitutional reform would be a major condition for agreement to a coalition. There has been much debate recently on the issue and many proposals have been made. The PPP, through its General Secretary, Clement Rohee, has rejected calls for constitutional reform, no doubt expecting that the PPP will be returned with an absolute majority. If invited into a coalition, the opposition will certainly feel it necessary to secure a commitment from the PPP/C for the broad outlines of constitutional reform during its term of office before committing to joining the government,” he asserted.
According to Ramkarran, presumably the opposition will demand the position of Prime Minister who may insist that he (or she), rather than the HPS, actually functions as deputy to the President as well as Leader of Government Business in the National Assembly.
Last month, amid political deadlock and facing growing criticism over his decision to suspend Parliament, President Donald Ramotar announced that he will call general elections but declined to name a date, saying that he will “announce further steps” in this direction early next year. He has not yet named a date for the elections and Parliament remains suspended.
