Dear Editor,
GHK Lall (SN Apr 28) in “Swing Vote not one-dimensional” identifies varied elements (types) of the swing voter in Guyana. But these are not the classic swing or independent voters that are found say in the US or Trinidad or Barbados or in so many developed countries. Guyana does not really have swing voters or truly independent voters who cast ballots based on issues; if they exist at all, they are a small, insignificant number that won’t determine the outcome of the election. In Guyana, voters are identified by their ethnicity and placed into a party. Even American elections are partisan where some voters are identified and placed in party based on ethnic, religious, class identification, etc.
Guyana does not really have independent minded voters. Unlike say in the U.S, we don’t have party registration that would help to identify the independent voters. Party registration determines the size of the independent voters. In 2006, some Africans and Mixed left the PNC and went for the AFC. In 2011, these very voters went back to PNC while Indians, hoping to add to the strength of the AFC, came across only to find the Africans had left. Whether they will stay with the opposition, given that they wanted nothing to do with the PNC, and now that the AFC has joined up with the PNC, remains to be seen.
If we had true swing voters in Guyana, they would have determined the outcome of elections and we would not have had the kind of problems experienced over the last 60 years.
A swing voter, in a classic definition of the term, is someone who votes on issues and who potentially alternates or changes vote for a party based on a better manifesto or tends to cast a ballot based on some kind of “turn on” or “turn off” issue. Swing voters don’t have an allegiance to any political party and how they vote can “swing the outcome” of an election. They are also called floating voters because of their “unaffiliation” with a party. The swing vote tends to go to any of the dominant political parties or to a minor party that can hold a balance of power (like what happened in 2006 and 2011 for the AFC). The swing voter is centrist “swinging” from election to election. Because swing voters tend to determine the outcome of close elections, they are highly prized and courted by the major parties.
In Guyana, people traditionally vote race, and as such, we have had since 1957 what political scientists call “core” or loyal or identity (ethnic) voters. These voters are “certain” or “locked in” to the dominant parties and tend to be very partisan – based on ethnicity or some kind of benefits flowing from the party affiliation. They are called party identified voters based on their ethnicity. In this year’s election, however, there is an apparent vote shift. A small number of voters from among Indians, and even some among Amerindians, can swing the elections. But they are not swing voters in the classic definition of the term. They (especially Indians) are angry voters; they are angry with the traditional party for neglecting them or not adequately servicing them.
It is not the campaign or issues that are determining the Indian or Amerindian swing towards the coalition; some voters are simply turned off by actions of the PPP and are talking change. But it is difficult to measure how many would actually vote for change. One trend is clear; there is no swing from the PNC opposition to the incumbent in this year’s election. There is, however, a swing back from AFC to PPP. Some who voted AFC last time to punish the PPP, feel betrayed and plan to stay home; some will vote PPP, and some for the minor parties. Also, some of those who did not vote last time, plan to come out to vote for their party. There are also voters who are turned off from PPP for a variety of reasons and of which the PPP did not address over the last several years although the PPP is now attempting to address these concerns at this late hour. Whether the late PPP action will help the party will be determined on elections day.
In a political environment where a close election is expected, a relatively small number of swing from PPP to coalition can alter the outcome of the election. For example, if 10% to 15% of Indians vote for the coalition, it will swing the election. But the opposition is far from there. But the mere fact that the Indians are willing to swing from PPP to the PNC led coalition and the fact that the Africans are not willing to swing from PNC to the PPP, is a significant development. The election is close and the gate is still ajar to produce a winner. A lot will depend on what the coalition does to lure Indians (and to some extent Amerindians) and what the ruling party does to retain Indians (and Amerindians). The coalition is appealing to Indians but not effectively. The ruling party is also appealing to Indians – pointing out what the PNC did to them, what could happen to them if the opposition wins, and the plans the PPP has for the nation should it win the election. The coalition has promised a number of goodies to the Indian big business community. But that won’t attract the ordinary and or middle class Indian voters or those who run small businesses. The Indians are fearful of a replay of the atrocities that were committed during the PNC era of governance. And the coalition has made no serious effort to address this concern. Indians want to be assured about their welfare, well-being, and security, and a right to conduct business. The PPP is playing to their concerns and doing an effective job at bringing back many Indians who were seriously thinking about the coalition. The Africans have largely made up their mind, but there are some Indians who are thinking of voting the coalition.
The 8% to 10% Indians who say they will vote for the coalition because of their faith and confidence in Nagamootoo could make the difference in the outcome of the election. They are voting “Nagamootoo”, not necessarily the coalition. Their faith and loyalty are with Nagamootoo. But many of these Indians are having second thoughts about voting for Naga (the coalition) as a result of the stepped up PPP campaign of the last two weeks. If Nagamootoo were the Presidential candidate, the Indians and even Amerindians would have no problem voting the opposition. But voters recognize that the President, not the Prime Minister, has the power under the Burnham constitution. And they fear the President could abuse his power as was done by Burnham.
Nevertheless, this is the most competitive of all the elections since 1957 or 1964. And the parties are going after the voters who are wavering; they will determine the outcome of the May 11 elections. If the wavering voters stick it out with PPP, it wins. If not, there will be a change in government.
Yours faithfully,
Vishnu Bisram
