Hundreds of thousands of Guyanese will head to the polls today in the most pivotal elections since 1992 with the main opposition parties uniting in their strongest effort yet to unseat the incumbent PPP/C government which has been in power for the past 22 years.
Bruised by numerous scandals, the ruling PPP/C with President Donald Ramotar at the head of the ticket, plucked a virtual unknown in Elisabeth Harper for his running mate, but it is doubtful whether she has been able to bring much to the table as during her appearances at campaign rallies, she has not excited supporters.
Ramotar’s appeal has been questioned too as he led the PPP/C to its worst showing in two decades at the 2011 polls, winning the presidency but losing the majority in the National Assembly. He was forced to call early elections to avoid a no-confidence vote that was being moved by the opposition.
It has been left to former President Bharrat Jagdeo to galvanize supporters but his divisive rhetoric on the campaign trail has alienated sections of the population and he and the party were forced to do damage control on several occasions. Jagdeo has also been heavily criticized for racially divisive remarks including by the Media Monitoring Unit of the Guyana Elections Com-mission.
In addition, foreign missions including the American and British envoys as well as the Carter Center and the Organisation of American States, although not identifying party, statement or speaker, have all expressed concern at the “provocative rhetoric” on the campaign trail. Jagdeo’s rhetoric while campaigning has been the most divisive.
Corruption scandals, the sudden wealth of government officials, the favouring of relatives and friends of the ruling party for multi-billion dollar contracts, party officials and their relatives seemingly being above the law, among other acts, have all dented support for the PPP/C.
More recently, Jagdeo’s comparison of his palatial lifestyle to that of the late Jagans’, the treatment of Harper when she was first introduced as the Prime Ministerial candidate as well as the treatment of rights activist Sherlina Nageer by Health Minister Bheri Ramsaran has not endeared the PPP/C to sections of the public. Ramsaran was subsequently fired but for some, this was merely an election gimmick.
The PPP/C record in these areas, however, did not prevent businessman and founder of the non-governmental organisation Blue Caps, Clinton Urling as well as former APNU parliamentarian Africo Selman from joining the party. The party’s campaign has been focused on letting “progress continue” and as he ramped up the appeal for votes in the homestretch, Ramotar has promised more accountability. However, it has been pointed out that many of the promises being made now, have been previously made and not fulfilled.
For their part, APNU and AFC, who contested separately in the 2011 general election were able to overcome their differences and form an alliance which is seen as the strongest effort yet to unseat the PPP/C. APNU leader David Granger leads the ticket with AFC executive and former PPP stalwart Moses Nagamootoo as his running mate. Although, the readiness of the alliance for governance has been questioned, the promise of “change” held out by the APNU+AFC campaign has translated into a movement that has generated momentum for the alliance.
APNU+AFC has also been able to attract endorsements as well as support from prominent Guyanese including former PPP stalwarts. Joey Jagan, the son of PPP founders the late Presidents Dr Cheddi and Janet Jagan has endorsed the alliance. He was on the PPP/C’s list of representatives for the 2011 elections. Former PPP stalwart as well as former Speaker of the National Assembly Ralph Ramkarran has also hailed the APNU+AFC alliance, saying that it comes right out of the playbook of the late Dr Jagan.
The opposition alliance has also been able to attract other endorsements from persons who once supported the PPP such as US-based Guyana-born doctor Dr Tulsi Dyal Singh who said that he has been a lifetime supporter of the PPP but now endorses APNU+AFC as the ruling party is not that of its founder Dr Jagan. Former army head Gary Best as well as other former army and police officers have also endorsed the coalition.
The overriding theme of the alliance’s campaign has been accountability which has resonated with Guyanese tired of the PPP/C excesses. The alliance has also made a series of promises, some of which are viewed with skepticism and should it gain power, it remains to be seen how the alliance will fulfill these pledges.
Although no reliable polls have been conducted, from all indications, the race would be close. Key areas would be West Berbice and East Corentyne where the AFC was able to wrest away votes from the PPP in 2011. Whether the APNU+AFC alliance is able to topple the PPP/C would be heavily dependent on how it performs in these areas.
Combined in 2011, APNU and the AFC garnered 51% of the votes to the PPP/C 48%. If turnout and voting allegiance was roughly the same this time around then APNU+AFC would simply have to hold the votes they got the last time.
The big question, analysts say is whether the AFC’s votes in key areas will be significantly reduced because of the PPP/C’s strong campaigning to link the alliance with the past of the PNC, the main constituent of APNU.
This campaigning could also increase turnout for the PPP/C and therefore help to nullify the combined advantage of APNU+AFC. However, still to be seen is how effective the alliance’s campaigning as it relates to the PPP/C governance practices and scandals and this could swing key voters.
