Coalition governments are inherently fragile constructs and the newly elected APNU+AFC government is no exception. If anything, it may be even more prone to the stresses and strains associated with multi-party governance, in that it is a multilayered coalition, with the APNU itself being an alliance of the larger People’s National Congress and its smaller partners, the Guyana Action Party, the National Front Alliance and the Working People’s Alliance.
The recent demise of the Conservative-Liberal Democrat coalition in the United Kingdom’s May 7 election was, thankfully for the APNU+AFC, not a harbinger of things to come on May 11. Of course, the Conservatives and the Liberal Democrats did not enter the UK elections as a coalition but all the pre-election opinion polls pointed to another hung parliament, as in May 2010, when the two parties struck a deal to end 13 years of Labour government. Then, it was not so much a marriage of convenience as “an ideological coalition of the willing”, as described by Hull University political scientist Simon Lee, since both partners were convinced that “their respective political visions would, in their own words, be ‘strengthened and enhanced’, rather than compromised, by working together.” This, quite naturally, is always the hope when entering into a coalition.
That the Conservatives were able to win a slender parliamentary majority, allowing David Cameron to form a government without the need for a coalition, was more of a reward for their commitment to continuing with economic policies that had led to the best growth figures in five years, rising employment and zero inflation, as well as encouraging social indicators (falling crime, what has been called a renaissance in schools and general satisfaction with the National Health Service). It was also a reflection of a certain lack of confidence in both Labour and the Liberal Democrats to deliver continued progress. The latter were perhaps guilty of having lost their way in the coalition, albeit in the interest of compromise. Labour, on the other hand, seemed to be handicapped by the wonky, uninspiring leadership of Ed Miliband, compounded by the Conservatives playing on fears of an alternative coalition between Labour and the Scottish National Party.
Closer to home, the People’s Partnership (PP) government in Trinidad and Tobago, also elected in May 2010, offers much food for thought. After five years of political controversy, missteps and outright scandal, and with elections due any time between June and September 2015, there is a strong feeling that the coalition is approaching its sell-by date, with the United National Congress (UNC) ever more predominant at the expense of its partners.
The National Joint Action Party, with its roots in the 1970 ‘Black Power Revolution’, was always regarded as window-dressing, with minimal popular support. The Movement for Social Justice has left the coalition and its leader, David Abdulah, has become a severe critic of Prime Minister Kamla Persad-Bissessar’s government. The Tobago Organisation of the People was completely wiped out in the Tobago House of Assembly elections in January 2013, and even though it remains a nominal member of the PP, it no longer has a political base.
Later in 2013, reputed UNC financier Jack Warner was forced to leave the government, resigned from the UNC, founded his own party and defeated the UNC in a by-election for the same parliamentary seat he had vacated. Worse, Mr Warner is now a wanted man in the USA and is threatening to implicate the UNC in his financial shenanigans. Finally, the Congress of the People is now virtually unrecognisable as the third force in T&T politics, with its current leader, Legal Affairs and Justice Minister Prakash Ramadhar, regarded as lacking independence within the PP. Indeed, as we pointed out in last Wednesday’s editorial, “the significance of a coalition in government over the last five years does not appear to be great.” For all intents and purposes, the forthcoming election is shaping up as a straight fight between the UNC and the People’s National Movement.
Here, in Guyana, we would like to believe that all the constituent members of the APNU+AFC coalition are fully cognisant of the challenges that lie ahead. Already, there have been ample warnings, criticisms (both negative and constructive) and well-meaning bits of advice appearing in all media. If they, with only a one-seat majority, are to build national unity, they would do well to study the experience of others. They must reward the believers with a demonstration of the art of the possible and win over the doubters with a show of cohesion and coherence. Compromise, in the sense of settling differences by making mutual concessions, must take precedence over finding themselves compromised, with their principles and positions so weakened that they bring the coalition into disrepute and jeopardise their joint vision for national progress. It will be a delicate balancing act, holding the coalition together, but they need to be successful if we are to avoid a return to the polarising politics of the past.
