Most of our interest in the recently concluded 36th Meeting of Caricom Heads was, understandably, focused on President David Granger’s address at the opening of the summit and the position taken by the region’s leaders in their communiqué, with regard to Venezuela’s Decree No 1,787 and that country’s hostility towards Guyana.
By now, of course, experienced Caricom watchers and communiqué analysts have become fairly adept at reading between the lines to try to get a sense of what the heads might or might not have discussed and what decisions they might have reached behind the cautious, not to say sometimes opaque, language of diplomacy. In this respect, the statement on the bothersome decree has already attracted comment, with more to come, as the situation continues to unfold.
In the meantime, there is another matter arising in the communiqué that merits a little more consideration: this is the pleasure expressed at the progress made in the normalisation of bilateral relations between Cuba and the United States of America and the renewed call for the removal of the US trade embargo.
All well and good in geopolitical terms and, even though we have no way of extrapolating from the communiqué what consideration was given to the economic and developmental implications for Caricom of Cuba’s eventual, full reinsertion into the hemispheric family of nations, we have to believe that the heads have been well briefed by their ministers, their technocrats and the Caricom Secretariat. After all, regional commentators such as David Jessop have been writing on this very subject for some time now, and it is clear that there will be opportunities as well as challenges aplenty for Caricom.
Indeed, just over a month ago, in an interview with the Spanish newspaper El País, the distinguished Cuban-American, Harvard political scientist, Jorge Domínguez, opined that Cuba could become “a Singapore of the Caribbean.”Professor Domínguez based this view on the fact that, for decades, revolutionary Cuba has invested heavily in training its people and is therefore well placed to reap the benefits of its educational achievements, especially in the field of medicine. A timely reminder of this capability was provided on June 30, when Cuba became the first country in the world to receive validation from the World Health Organisation as having eliminated mother-to-child transmission of HIV and syphilis.
But there is a caveat. Prof Domínguez believes that many things will need to change. For example, in order to prevent a brain drain and unleash the full potential of its people, the Cuban government will need to pay them proper salaries; invoking the revolution is no longer sufficient. In addition, Prof Domínguez thinks that the official line that reforms should occur “without pause but without haste” should be adjusted so that they might be pursued “without pause but with a little haste” because, if not, “the most important resource built up over half a century, the capacity of the Cuban people, is going to go up in smoke.”
Furthermore, no one expects the route towards normalisation between the USA and Cuba to be easy. For one thing, the removal of the embargo requires an act of Congress. Then there are other burning issues such as the US naval base at Guantánamo and American claims for compensation for property confiscated after the revolution. All these will obviously take time.
The economic situation in Cuba, however, is grave and this could tip the balance. President Raúl Castro has already shown more pragmatism than elder brother Fidel and may well see in improved relations with the USA opportunities for attracting the capital and technology necessary for economic recovery and lift-off. Political change, on the other hand, may only come with a generational change in leadership, with Raúl due to step down in 2018, when he will be 87, presumably to be succeeded by current vice-president Miguel Díaz-Canel, 55.
It is well nigh impossible to predict the pace and extent of change in Cuba but, clearly, Caricom does not have much time to prepare itself for life alongside a resurgent Cuba, whether on a competitive basis or a complementary one. It is something our political leaders and private sector should be discussing in depth, if they are not already doing so.
