Guyana is one of four Caribbean Community (Caricom) nations that are among 29 countries listed by a UK-based organization as being at risk of government external debt crises.
Guyana, Haiti and St Lucia are named by Jubilee Debt Campaign, a coalition of national organizations and local groups around the United Kingdom as facing the risk of finding themselves in debt crises, while Dominica is said to be at high risk based on large external debt, a large and persistent current account deficit, and high projected future government debt payments.
The information is contained in Jubilee’s 40-page document titled, ‘The new debt trap: How the response to the last global financial crisis has laid the ground for the next’ which analyses public and private debt owed by countries across the world.
Jubilee’s analysis deems countries to be at risk of a government debt crisis if they have net debt higher than 30 per cent of GDP, or current account deficit amounting to more than five per cent of GDP; and future government debt payments exceeding 10 per cent of government revenue or, where projections are not available, current government external debt already over 40 per cent of GDP.
The 14 countries at high risk have net debt of more than 30 per cent of GDP; future government debt payments exceeding 15 per cent of government revenue or, where projections are not available, current government external debt already over 50 per cent of GDP; and a current account deficit that is more than five per cent of GDP.
The Jubilee Report says that of these countries “some are already likely to be back in debt crisis, though figures are not yet available to show that they are.” These, the report says, are likely to have high government debt payments over the next few years.
Meanwhile the report names an additional five Caricom countries as being among 22 already in a government external debt crisis, with “high government debt payments leading to large amounts of money leaving their country each year, along with an overall net debt with the rest of the world.”
Net debt for that group reportedly stands at over 30 per cent of GDP and external debt payments exceed 15 per cent of government revenue.
No Caribbean nation was named on the list of 28 countries at risk of facing a private-sector debt crisis.