Dear Editor,
There are some similarities in political jousting by a former president in Sri Lanka and one in Guyana as each seeks to revive their political fortunes. Sri Lanka holds parliamentary elections on August 17 and Mahinda Rajapaksa who was defeated in elections last January is seeking a parliamentary seat with the hope of becoming prime minister and returning as president in elections due before 2020. At home, Bharrat Jagdeo, who could not run for the presidency in 2011 because of term limits, is re-entering parliament perhaps eying the presidency in the next election due within five years, though he has stated that is not his interest.
Sri Lanka has a president as chief executive who appoints the prime minister and cabinet who must come from the parliament. The cabinet can be a mixture from the governing party as well as the opposition party. The current President, because of ethnic and political conflict, has formed a national unity government comprising members of his own party as well as the opposition; Guyana should consider it as a model. Unlike Guyana, there are separate elections for president and the parliament. The leader of the parliament is usually appointed the PM. The president and PM could be from separate parties as happened several times in France. So far in Sri Lanka, the President and the PM were from the same party except from last January when they were from different parties.
As President, Rajapaksa tinkered with the constitution last year to allow him to seek a third term and called early elections. Bharrat Jagdeo did not attempt to tinker with constitutional term limits though the term limit amendment has been declared “unconstitutional” without a referendum, according to Chief Justice Ian Chang.
Rajapaksa gambled with early elections almost two years ahead of schedule and lost to his former Health Minister Maithripala Sirisena who resigned from the cabinet to challenge Rajapaksa. The opposition had recruited Sirisena to be their candidate who made a number of commitments including devolution to regional governments. After his victory, Sirisena appointed the Opposition Leader, Ranil Wickramsinghe, Prime Minister although Sirisena’s party controlled a majority of seats in the parliament angering his party MPs who rebelled against him. Jagdeo gambled with Donald Ramotar twice (2011 and 2015) and he lost; it is not unnoticed that Ramotar refused to reconcile with defectors in his party as was also the case with Rajapaksa leading to both of their defeats. They learnt nothing from political cases.
Sri Lanka has a mixed system of electing MPs that Guyana should look at. Some 196 MPs are elected from 22 multi-member electoral districts using what is known as the open-party list (similar to Guyana) method. (The Fijian model of candidate preference and some other tinkering could be added to it as a possibility for Guyana to elect MPs based on vote drawing power and who in turn can choose MPs rather than selecting MPs based on ethnic tokenism – it would force candidates to work hard to get votes and serve constituents). The remaining 29 seats are allocated to parties or independents in proportion to their share of the national vote. There are 225 members in the Assembly with 113 needed for government formation.
Parliamentary elections are being held some 10 months early in Sri Lanka because of issues within the governing party (with MPs rebelling against the President) as well as conflicts with the opposition which feels betrayed by Sirisena. The opposition controls the prime ministership in an agreement that was made before last January’s presidential election between Sirisena and the opposition to defeat Rajapaksa. The outgoing governing party (headed by Sirisena) held a lopsided majority of almost two-thirds.
Rajapaksa, who is a member of Sirisena’s party, is heading the party’s parliamentary list and is confident of victory and of becoming the PM. But opinion polls suggest no party will get a majority and are even suggesting the opposition could come out on top because the anti-Rajapaksa’s forces have united to prevent him from returning as PM. The opposition is hoping for a repeat of last January. The outcome is close and uncertain. Even Sirisena, who is head of his party, is quietly opposed to a return of Rajapaksa to parliament. But he did not want to deny Rajapaksa a seat fearing it would come across as political retribution. However, the opposition, headed by Prime Minister Ranil Wickramsinghe, has expressed disappointment in Sirisena for not taking a tough stance against Rajapksa who has been accused of atrocities against ethnic minorities, corruption, and countless wrongdoings. They feel Sirisena should have denied Rajapaksa a nomination to contest a seat but Sirisena feared party rebellion were he to take such a move. He, himself, may be hoping his party does not get a majority – which will be a first for a political leader in any country.
A Rajapaksa victory will not be good for Sri Lanka as it will bring back terrible memories of the ethnic war that led to the killings of hundreds of thousands. It will mean an uneasy cohabitation with rival Sirisena and inevitably lead to political instability and early presidential elections with Rajapaksa undoubtedly seeking to make a comeback, especially since he has accused Sirisena and Wickramsinghe of political witchhunting and targeting his family with a host of investigations. A Wickramasinghe led opposition coalition victory will lead to an easier cohabitation with Sirisena who supports the opposition plan to dilute the powers of the presidency.
Sirisena is not actively campaigning for his party though he tells reporters that he is confident and that he wants his party to win. He also hinted that he will not appoint Rajapaksa as PM if he wins a majority but it will be impossible to not appoint the leader of parliament as PM. Sirisena is probably the only politician in the world who supports a reduction of his powers and empowering the people. If Rajapaksa does not get a majority in parliament, he may seek the Opposition Leader role, but it is not probable his party will choose him, unlike Guyana where a former President is selected as Opposition Leader. Being Opposition Leader to your own party leader (President Sirisena) will probably be a first not only for Sri Lanka but the world. It is a most unusual political system that was not foreseen because of issues that Rajapaksa himself created by making enemies within his own party that led to his defeat. This is not dissimilar to what happened in Guyana over the last several years.
At home, the PPP opposition continues to boycott parliament over its allegation of a rigged May election. It is not clear what its game plan is in electing Jagdeo as its opposition leader in parliament. It is indisputable he is the most dynamic among those in the leadership to lead the party. As with Rajapaksa in Sri Lanka, Jagdeo may be thinking of a comeback. But is it possible?
Yours faithfully,
Vishnu Bisram