Dear Editor,
Everyone knows GuySuCo is ailing and has been for a long time. The metrics are abundantly clear about its financial ill-health. What is also abundantly clear is that any attempt to fix this problem in the fashion proposed by Mr Rawle Lucas to the GuySuCo Commission of Inquiry will imperil the entire economy.
One recent letter highlighted the perils of an abrupt shutdown. I think even a gradual shutdown over the life of this government (five years) is going to devastate the economy and will set this country back decades. The outlook on commodity prices in the next five years is poor. Even oil in Guyana isn’t going to happen before 2020 based on current and expected realities. So, there is no dynamic replacement industry or revenue source to offset the closure of a major industry like the sugar industry. The country grew a dismal 0.9% in the first half of 2015 and it is very evident that the economic gloom is worsening.
The Ministry of Finance refuses to produce quarterly statistics because, it is suspected, these will likely reflect the nation is going to technically be in recession by October. The world economy as well as the demand for commodities are projected to slow in the next five years due to readjustments in the emerging powers. There is nothing in terms of tangible radical economic endeavours or transformative projects on this government’s radar for the next five years. Stabroek News’ recent editorial pointed out this glaring problem, particularly when an economy is in decline and the multiplier spending from these projects could at least hold the fort. How does any economist recommend the phasing out of a major industry in this derelict current and projected climate? If the government can keep the bloated, unproductive and inefficient public sector afloat and stimulate the slipping economy by giving salary increases to that sector, it can clearly try to keep GuySuCo afloat while addressing how to fix its woes without the sort of complete upheaval Mr Lucas suggests.
In a crumbling economy, if you take a central feature of that economy away, you must have either a replacement or an outlet for replacement economic activity. Creating a greater economic void in an existing void is a recipe for collapse, and a recipe for this government to be wiped out in the next election. Identify the profitable areas in the sugar industry and run tests and studies to see if there is a possibility of fixing the debacle starting with those profit centres. Explore and tackle the problem fully. You cannot retrench over 15,000 workers and affect tens of thousands dependent on those workers over five years in an economy with a small working population.
Yours faithfully,
M Maxwell
