Dear Editor,
Lyndon B Johnson spoke of the “Great Society,” which for him meant social reforms designed to eliminate poverty and racial injustice. He saw the nation’s greatness in terms of economic prosperity and opportunity. For most of us, good is what is perceived to serve our self-interest best. Society is good if it provides personal comforts and security and generates a standard of living people feel entitled to enjoy. This is a purely materialist perspective that says nothing about spirituality, morality or virtue.
Whether the inspiration came Johnson or Plato or someone else, Minister of Finance Winston D Jordan, in his 2015 Budget speech, lays out the Government plan for a good life: “Vision 2020: The Good Life in a Green economy”. How does he see The Good Life? “All Guyanese,” he says, “yearn for the good life ‒ one in which the country’s patrimony is exploited in a sustainable and responsible manner that caters for future generations; where they have good jobs providing permanent incomes; where they have access to decent affordable housing, health care, pure water, sanitation and education; where they can live and retire comfortably and in a secure environment. Our government commits to providing that good life”. This view moves beyond Johnson’s idea of a “Great Society” to encompass inter-generational sustainability, livable old-age pension, universal health care and equal access to opportunities. The phrase “All Guyanese” suggests that the paramountcy of ethnicity will be confined to history.
As far as I can recollect, no other budget in the country’s history has enunciated such a vision. It is a broad, bold and a worthy vision, but somewhat shortsighted; less than 20/20 in how the vision is to be secured. Minister Jordan gives the following as a prerequisite for securing “the good life”:
- Macroeconomic stability to promote both external and internal balance over the next five years. The government will create the “conditions to foster a positive growth trajectory while improving expenditure management and revenue administration, low inflation, stable exchange rate and sustainable debt. This will involve the undertaking of prudent and targeted fiscal policy, in order to reduce the deficit in both the Central Government and Public Enterprises.”
- Diversification of the economy “so as to negate any undue dependence on the extractive sector”
- A “comprehensive master plan” that will “improve, create and invest heavily in new infrastructural assets and drainage and irrigation systems.”
- “The public health infrastructure and delivery systems will be remodelled to focus on prevention and promotion of wellness for all of our people, so as to achieve and maintain a good life”. The government will invest heavily in the health sector …
- Forging social cohesion, which “is an intricate interplay of culture, geographic space, language, religion, race, social phenomena and status; and provides impetus for economic prosperity … our Government wishes to promote policies that focus on nationhood and protection of vulnerable groups”.
- Keeping Guyana intact. Venezuela’s “spurious claim to almost two-thirds of our land mass and, more recently, all of our sea space, has been a drain on our nation’s resources.”
- Pursuit of “economic diplomacy as an integral facet of our foreign policy,” which is necessary to attract resources to transform the economy.
- “We need a police force that is more accountable to the public and better able to deal with crime and anti-social behaviour that is anathema to the good life.”
- Recognition of the idea that the private sector is the engine of economic growth.
- Enhancement of local democracy. “Strong local government is viewed as essential to fostering the conditions for social cohesion, deepening democracy and advancing development.”
Even with these prerequisites, the vision is shortsighted because of its meagre time frame, the lack of a comprehensive, cohesive plan, inadequate resources for education, health and nutrition, and economic misconceptions. The latter includes the incompatibility of over-zealously stringent macroeconomic stability and robust, sustained growth in an economy trapped in a low-level equilibrium, the growing brain and brawn drains, inadequate attention to revving up the economic engine and to spreading its fruits more evenly and justly. Over the past several years, net migration (out-migration less in-migration) exceeded 13,000, which is an important reason for the shrinking population. Population contracted from 783,700 in 2010 to 746,900 in 2014 or by 39,100, which represents a contraction of 5 per cent in four years.
The number of overweight children is on the rise, up from 3.7 per cent in 2010 to 7.8 per cent in 2014. Low birth weight, which is an important factor in child death and health issues in adult life, is almost 12 per cent (as a share of live births), which is 1 per cent higher than in 2010. Today 23.3 infants out of every 1000 live births die before age 1, up from 15 in 2010. Under-5 mortality is also rising, from 20.5 in 2010 to 23.9 in 2014. Maternal mortality is also on the rise and Guyana is among the five countries in the Americas with the highest rates of maternal mortality.
The allocation to education in 2015 is slightly lower than 2010 (14.8 per cent compared to over 15 per cent), even after the budget correctly drew attention to the centrality of IT and STEM (Science, Technology, Engineering and Mathematics) education. Health will receive a paltry 9.9 per cent of the total budget or 1.2 per cent more than 2014. Even so, WHO data indicate that total health spending per person increased from US$57 in 2000 to US$200 in 2011. Yet Guyana’s per capita health expenditure was one of the lowest in the Americas; only Haiti (US$60) and Nicaragua (US$125) spent less.
Despite these shortcomings, the 2020 Vision for “The Good Life” represents a major milestone. If it manages to democratize the political space, ensure security, and secure equal treatment of all Guyanese, little more can be asked.
Yours faithfully,
Ramesh Gampat