“May you live in interesting times” is thought to be an ancient Chinese curse although no textual evidence exists to support this. It might as well be a Venezuelan curse, given the travails that country is undergoing and the challenges facing President Nicolás Maduro.
With no end to the Bolivarian Republic’s economic crisis in sight, the December 6 legislative elections are shaping up to be a referendum on the stewardship of Mr Maduro, who was elected in April 2013 by a razor-thin majority. Opinion polls suggest that the ruling United Socialist Party of Venezuela (PSUV), with an approval rating now below 20 per cent, could take a beating. But with key opposition leaders under arrest or imprisoned and with the National Electoral Council (CNE) controlled by the chavista regime, fears are mounting regarding the integrity of the electoral process. As domestic and international pressure builds, it has been an interesting week for Venezuela.
On Monday, a group of Venezuelan lawyers petitioned the International Criminal Court (ICC) to conduct an investigation into “crimes committed by high-level officials of the Government of Venezuela since February 2014,” when protests across the country were met with bloody and deathly force. Mr Maduro is one of those officials cited as being responsible for murder, torture, political persecution and arbitrary imprisonment.
Led by the main defence attorney for jailed opposition leader Leopoldo López and a political exile from Mr López’s party, the lawyers represent relatives of some of the victims of last year’s political violence. In their submission, they note that Mr Maduro is making serious threats in the lead-up to December 6 and claim that continuing political repression and the fear of “a new wave of lèse-humanité crimes” behove the ICC to take urgent action to avoid a worse situation. Acts of torture, including against Mr López, have already been independently denounced by the United Nations Special Rapporteur on Torture, Amnesty International and Human Rights Watch.
On Tuesday, Organization of American States (OAS) Secretary General Luis Almagro published an 18-page letter to CNE head Tibisay Lucena, accusing her of failing to provide for free and fair elections. In addressing CNE moves to disqualify opposition candidates ahead of the elections, arbitrary changes to electoral rules, allegations of gerrymandering, the printing of confusing ballot papers, and problems relating to campaign financing, media access, press freedom and freedom of expression, Mr Almagro also criticised the 14-year jail sentence recently imposed on Mr López and the existing political climate of intimidation and fear – all guaranteed to put the opposition parties at a disadvantage.
This is the second major salvo Mr Almagro has directed at the Venezuelan authorities, following an open letter, in September, to government minister Elías Jaua, who had attacked Mr Almagro’s personal integrity in a hysterical letter of his own. Mr Almagro’s view is that he would be failing in his duties as OAS secretary general if he did not defend basic principles of human rights and political freedom, as conditions in Venezuela “do not ensure transparency and electoral justice.” This is commendable but he appears to be fighting a losing battle and it is not clear either how many OAS member states stand behind him.
The Venezuelan government, through the CNE, has steadfastly refused to countenance an OAS mission to observe the elections and, given past form, it is hardly likely that they will act on Mr Almagro’s observations, preferring to dismiss him, despite his leftist credentials, as a puppet of the USA.
Ironically, the day before Mr Almagro’s letter, Venezuelan ambassador to the OAS Bernardo Álvarez made his first speech as the new chairman of the OAS Permanent Council for the next three months, with the whole question of democratic rights in Venezuela and his government’s rejection of OAS monitoring, the proverbial elephant in the room. Only the Mexican ambassador reportedly offered an indirect critique, reminding his colleagues that an integral part of democracy is “an election process that is credible, a process that is clean.”
But the week got even more interesting for Mr Maduro and the PSUV, with the news that two of first lady Cilia Flores’ nephews had been arrested in Haiti on Tuesday and flown to New York to face charges of conspiring to smuggle 800 kilogrammes of cocaine into the USA. Mr Maduro’s wife is a political player in her own right, a former attorney general (2012-2013), leader of the national assembly (2006-2011) and a candidate in the upcoming elections, and this development has prompted the powerful, current president of the national assembly, Diosdado Cabello, himself tainted by drug-related allegations, to claim that President Maduro and the government are being “attacked from all sides” and to lash out against “North American imperialism”.
As the siege mentality takes an increasingly firm hold on the regime, it is anyone’s guess whether the opposition will be allowed to win control of the national assembly and, if so, whether the margin of victory would be sufficient to exercise real political power vis-à-vis the executive powers of the presidency. The outcome may well depend on the level to which hemispheric and international pressure is ramped up. Interesting times…
